Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Final, recorded Sun 4:10 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:54 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium · Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 6 mph, 62°F
Tennessee Titans1–7 · Elo 1326 · Cam Ward (+19 Elo)
18–24
Baltimore Ravens
4–4 · Elo 1503 · Lamar Jackson (+13 Elo) · Home
Final: TEN 18, BAL 24. Elo moved BAL 1538 → 1545 and TEN 1340 → 1333.
Lock of the week. BAL · Elo gives the Baltimore Ravens 77% at home against the Tennessee Titans and the market says 78%. No game this week has both more sure of the same team. Jackson is worth +13 Elo to the Ravens; Ward is worth +19 Elo to the Titans. Hit.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BAL | TEN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BAL 80% | 80% | 20% | +21.0 | BAL 1538 vs TEN 1340, implied spread BAL −9.6 |
| Closing spread | BAL 80% | 80% | 20% | +21.0 | BAL -11.5 |
| Sportsbooks | BAL 85% | 85% | 15% | +22.8 | |
| Kalshi | BAL 86% | 86% | 15% | +23.0 | |
| Polymarket | BAL 86% | 86% | 15% | +23.0 | |
| The blend | BAL 84% | 84% | 16% | +22.4 | |
| The crowd (3) | BAL 79% | 79% | 21% | +20.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | BAL 79% | 79% | 21% | +20.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Baltimore Ravens over the Titans: Elo 80%, market 85%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo.
Details
- Importance 41 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 11.
- Rest: BAL 7 days, TEN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. BAL: Lamar Jackson (+13 Elo). TEN: Cam Ward (+19 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 6 mph, 62°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread BAL -11.5, total 42.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $885k traded, $752k open · Polymarket: $109k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Ravens 24, Titans 18. Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens, Week 4. The Ravens won 24 to 18; the game turned on J.Slye kicks onside 9 yards from TEN 35 to TEN 44. M.Starks (didn't try to advance) to TEN. Attendance 70,101. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Ravens at 85%, Elo at 80%, The System at 86%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+23.0).
This was the lock (Baltimore Ravens) this week: it hit.
- Elo: Ravens 80%, +21.0
- The market: Ravens 85%, +22.8
- The System: Ravens 86%, +23.0
- The crowd: Ravens 79%, +20.6
- The bot crowd: Ravens 85%, +22.8
How it happened
The swing: J.Slye kicks onside 9 yards from TEN 35 to TEN 44. M.Starks (didn't try to advance) to TEN 44 for no gain. in the fourth quarter at 1:12, which moved the home side's chances from 92% to 100%.
- Largest lead: Ravens by 17. Lead changes: 0.
- Ravens's live win probability ranged from 80% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q2 0:00: Tyler Loop 64 Yd Field Goal (TEN 7, BAL 24)
- Q3 6:52: Joey Slye 33 Yd Field Goal (TEN 10, BAL 24)
- Q4 1:12: Wan'Dale Robinson 3 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Cam Ward Pass to Gunnar Helm for Two-Point Conversion) (TEN 18, BAL 24)
The box score
The Ravens won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: TEN 297, BAL 384
- Yards per play: TEN 5.1, BAL 6.3
- Third downs: TEN 2-10, BAL 2-10
- Turnovers: TEN 2, BAL 0
- Penalties: TEN 5-32, BAL 13-131
- Possession: TEN 26:52, BAL 33:08
- Red zone: TEN 2-4, BAL 3-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Ravens +7 to 1545, Titans -7 to 1333. The quarterback adjustment going in was BAL +13, TEN +19.
- Cam Ward (TEN): 20/31, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 83
- Lamar Jackson (BAL): 15/20, 222 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 144.2
- Rushing: Derrick Henry (BAL), 23 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Zay Flowers (BAL), 8 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Tony Pollard (TEN), 16 CAR, 48 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Carnell Tate (TEN), 9 REC, 145 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +20.7 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +22.5 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Homer, Ravens 87%, +23.3.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 26, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 10:28 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward BAL by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (BAL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 84% | 86% | +2 | 28 |
| Kalshi | 84% | 86% | +2 | 37 |
| Sportsbooks | 83% | 85% | +2 | 19 |
Consensus over time