Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
Final, recorded Sun 11:50 PM ET · markets priced Sun 8:15 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Sunday, Oct 11, 8:20 PM ET · closed
Baltimore Ravens4–4 · Elo 1503 · Tyler Huntley (−16 Elo)
30–23
Atlanta Falcons
3–5 · Elo 1457 · Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo) · Home
Final: BAL 30, ATL 23. Elo moved ATL 1493 → 1470 and BAL 1545 → 1569.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | BAL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | ATL 56% | 56% | 44% | -6.4 | ATL 1493 vs BAL 1545, implied spread ATL −1.6 |
| Closing spread | ATL 60% | 60% | 40% | -11.0 | ATL -3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | ATL 61% | 61% | 39% | -12.2 | |
| Kalshi | ATL 63% | 63% | 38% | -14.7 | |
| Polymarket | ATL 63% | 63% | 38% | -14.7 | |
| The blend | ATL 60% | 60% | 40% | -11.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Atlanta Falcons over the Ravens: Elo 56%, market 62%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Penix is worth 28 Elo; Huntley is costing 16 Elo.
Details
- Importance 45 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 40.
- Rest: ATL 6 days, BAL 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo). BAL: Tyler Huntley (-16 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread ATL -3, total 43.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $9.1M traded, $8.9M open · Polymarket: $1.4M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Ravens 30, Falcons 23: the upset. Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons, Week 5. The Ravens won 30 to 23 as a 62% underdog by the market; the game turned on T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BLT 35 to ATL 2. Br.Robinson to ATL 23 for 21 yards (E.Burke; R. Attendance 72,392. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Ravens at 38%, Elo at 44%, The System at 40%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-6.4).
- Elo: Ravens 44%, -6.4
- The market: Ravens 38%, -13.4
- The System: Ravens 40%, -11.0
- The bot crowd: Ravens 40%, -11.0
How it happened
The swing: T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BLT 35 to ATL 2. Br.Robinson to ATL 23 for 21 yards (E.Burke; R.Ali). in the fourth quarter at 0:40, which moved the home side's chances from 83% to 56%.
- Largest lead: Falcons by 8. Lead changes: 2.
- Ravens's live win probability ranged from 2% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 2:31: Nick Folk 48 Yd Field Goal (BAL 15, ATL 23)
- Q4 0:40: Devontez Walker 7 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Derrick Henry Run for Two-Point Conversion) (BAL 23, ATL 23)
- Q5 2:57: Tyler Huntley 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick) (BAL 30, ATL 23)
The box score
The Ravens won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: BAL 391, ATL 367
- Yards per play: BAL 5.5, ATL 5.7
- Third downs: BAL 8-15, ATL 9-17
- Turnovers: BAL 1, ATL 1
- Penalties: BAL 5-40, ATL 7-67
- Possession: BAL 35:10, ATL 32:45
- Red zone: BAL 3-4, ATL 1-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Falcons -24 to 1470, Ravens +24 to 1569. The quarterback adjustment going in was ATL +28, BAL -16.
- Tyler Huntley (BAL): 24/32, 201 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 111.6
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 19/32, 240 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 93.2
- Rushing: Bijan Robinson (ATL), 17 CAR, 86 YDS
- Receiving: Drake London (ATL), 7 REC, 118 YDS
- Rushing: Derrick Henry (BAL), 24 CAR, 102 YDS
- Receiving: Rashod Bateman (BAL), 5 REC, 62 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +11.3 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -11.2 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Ravens 63%, +11.3.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 8 PM ET; last change Sun 7:50 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward ATL by 35 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (ATL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 27% | 63% | +36 | 45 |
| Kalshi | 28% | 63% | +35 | 53 |
| Sportsbooks | 29% | 61% | +32 | 24 |
Consensus over time