Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets
Final, recorded Sun 4:15 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:44 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 14 mph, 63°F
Cleveland Browns5–3 · Elo 1450 · Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo) · off a bye
12–17
New York Jets
2–6 · Elo 1380 · Geno Smith (+22 Elo) · Home
Final: CLE 12, NYJ 17. Elo moved NYJ 1399 → 1421 and CLE 1467 → 1446.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYJ | CLE | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CLE 58% | 42% | 58% | -8.6 | NYJ 1399 vs CLE 1467, implied spread NYJ +2.3 |
| Closing spread | NYJ 57% | 57% | 43% | +6.5 | NYJ -2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NYJ 56% | 56% | 44% | +5.6 | |
| Kalshi | NYJ 56% | 56% | 44% | +5.6 | |
| Polymarket | NYJ 56% | 56% | 44% | +5.6 | |
| The blend | NYJ 53% | 53% | 47% | +2.9 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
New York Jets over the Browns: Elo 42%, market 56%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; CLE off a bye.
Details
- Importance 35 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 11.
- Rest: NYJ 7 days, CLE 10 days. CLE off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. NYJ: Geno Smith (+22 Elo). CLE: Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 14 mph, 63°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread NYJ -2.5, total 38.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $289k traded, $272k open · Polymarket: $432k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Jets 17, Browns 12. Cleveland Browns at New York Jets, Week 5. The Jets won 17 to 12; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep left to D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Szmyt extra point. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Jets at 56%, Elo at 42%, The System at 53%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+5.6).
- Elo: Jets 42%, -8.6
- The market: Jets 56%, +5.6
- The System: Jets 53%, +2.9
- The bot crowd: Jets 53%, +2.9
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep left to D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Szmyt extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez. in the fourth quarter at 6:15, which moved the home side's chances from 67% to 36%.
- Largest lead: Jets by 7. Lead changes: 2.
- Jets's live win probability ranged from 25% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 14:37: Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal (CLE 6, NYJ 10)
- Q4 6:15: Denzel Boston 29 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt PAT Failed) (CLE 12, NYJ 10)
- Q4 3:01: Braelon Allen 22 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick) (CLE 12, NYJ 17)
The box score
The Jets won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: CLE 197, NYJ 276
- Yards per play: CLE 3.0, NYJ 4.2
- Third downs: CLE 4-16, NYJ 8-17
- Turnovers: CLE 2, NYJ 2
- Penalties: CLE 6-30, NYJ 10-102
- Possession: CLE 28:35, NYJ 31:25
- Red zone: CLE 0-1, NYJ 0-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Jets +21 to 1421, Browns -21 to 1446. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYJ +22, CLE +34.
- Deshaun Watson (CLE): 15/33, 155 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 69.6
- Geno Smith (NYJ): 17/30, 182 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 85.7
- Rushing: Braelon Allen (NYJ), 24 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Garrett Wilson (NYJ), 7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Quinshon Judkins (CLE), 14 CAR, 44 YDS
- Receiving: Isaiah Bond (CLE), 3 REC, 74 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +0.5 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +2.5 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Jets 56%, +5.6.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:15 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward NYJ by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NYJ) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 53% | 56% | +4 | 52 |
| Polymarket | 53% | 56% | +4 | 26 |
| Sportsbooks | 54% | 56% | +2 | 17 |
Consensus over time