Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Final, recorded Sun 4:50 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:44 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Northwest Stadium · Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 13 mph, 66°F
New York Giants4–2–1 · Elo 1504 · Jameis Winston (−71 Elo)
27–27
Washington Commanders
2–4–1 · Elo 1443 · Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo) · Home
Final: NYG 27, WSH 27. Elo moved WSH 1428 → 1427 and NYG 1495 → 1496.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | WSH | NYG | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | WSH 60% | 60% | 40% | — | WSH 1428 vs NYG 1495, implied spread WSH −2.7 |
| Closing spread | WSH 60% | 60% | 40% | — | WSH -3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | WSH 63% | 63% | 37% | — | |
| Kalshi | WSH 63% | 63% | 38% | — | |
| Polymarket | WSH 63% | 63% | 38% | — | |
| The blend | WSH 64% | 64% | 36% | — |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Washington Commanders over the Giants: Elo 60%, market 63%. Tight agreement: go above both. Winston is costing 71 Elo.
Details
- Importance 51 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 20.
- Rest: WSH 7 days, NYG 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. WSH: Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo). NYG: Jameis Winston (-71 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 13 mph, 66°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread WSH -3.5, total 41.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $117k traded, $93k open · Polymarket: $78k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Giants 27, Commanders 27. New York Giants at Washington Commanders, Week 5. A tie.; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (D.Payne; S.Styles). FUMBLES (D.P. Attendance 64,195. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A tie; nobody scores.
- Elo: Giants 40%, +0.0
- The market: Giants 37%, +0.0
- The System: Giants 36%, +0.0
- The bot crowd: Giants 36%, +0.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (D.Payne; S.Styles). FUMBLES (D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-S.Tuttle at WAS 23. in the 5th quarter at 2:00, which moved the home side's chances from 11% to 53%.
- Largest lead: Commanders by 14. Lead changes: 0.
- Giants's live win probability ranged from 2% to 89% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 11:05: Jayden Daniels 26 Yd Rush (Jayden Daniels Pass to Terry McLaurin for Two-Point Conversion) (NYG 13, WSH 27)
- Q4 7:20: Isaiah Likely 17 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick) (NYG 20, WSH 27)
- Q4 1:43: Malik Nabers 17 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Dominic Zvada Kick) (NYG 27, WSH 27)
The box score
The Giants won the yards, 408 to 378.
- Total yards: NYG 408, WSH 378
- Yards per play: NYG 4.9, WSH 6.3
- Third downs: NYG 8-17, WSH 4-12
- Turnovers: NYG 2, WSH 0
- Penalties: NYG 7-35, WSH 9-69
- Possession: NYG 39:25, WSH 30:35
- Red zone: NYG 3-3, WSH 0-1
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Commanders -1 to 1427, Giants +1 to 1496. The quarterback adjustment going in was WSH +15, NYG -71.
- Jameis Winston (NYG): 33/54, 326 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 96.7
- Jayden Daniels (WSH): 17/25, 199 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 91.9
- Rushing: Jayden Daniels (WSH), 9 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Terry McLaurin (WSH), 4 REC, 62 YDS
- Rushing: Cam Skattebo (NYG), 13 CAR, 59 YDS
- Receiving: Malik Nabers (NYG), 11 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:20 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward WSH by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (WSH) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 60% | 63% | +3 | 38 |
| Kalshi | 58% | 63% | +5 | 37 |
| Sportsbooks | 57% | 63% | +6 | 21 |
Consensus over time