Jaguars at Ravens $226k, Raiders at 49ers $61k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars
Final, recorded Sun 1:15 PM ET · markets priced Sun 9:27 AM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London · Sunday, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET · neutral site · outdoors · wind 5 mph, 58°F
Philadelphia Eagles2–6 · Elo 1401 · Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo)
17–19
Jacksonville Jaguars
5–2 · Elo 1605 · Trevor Lawrence · Home
Final: PHI 17, JAX 19. Elo moved JAX 1602 → 1610 and PHI 1492 → 1485.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | JAX | PHI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 63% | 63% | 37% | +11.3 | JAX 1602 vs PHI 1492, implied spread JAX −3.8 |
| Closing spread | JAX 71% | 71% | 29% | +16.6 | JAX -7.5 |
| Sportsbooks | JAX 77% | 77% | 23% | +19.7 | |
| Kalshi | JAX 77% | 77% | 24% | +19.7 | |
| Polymarket | JAX 77% | 77% | 24% | +19.7 | |
| The blend | JAX 73% | 73% | 27% | +17.7 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Jacksonville Jaguars over the Eagles: Elo 63%, market 77%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 48 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 48.
- Rest: JAX 7 days, PHI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. JAX: Trevor Lawrence (+3 Elo). PHI: Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph, 58°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread JAX -8, total 41.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.2M traded, $1.1M open · Polymarket: $1.0M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Jaguars 19, Eagles 17: back and forth. Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 5. The Jaguars won 19 to 17; the game turned on C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Hamilton, Holder-L.Cooke.. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Jaguars at 77%, Elo at 63%, The System at 73%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+19.7).
- Elo: Jaguars 63%, +11.3
- The market: Jaguars 77%, +19.7
- The System: Jaguars 73%, +17.7
- The bot crowd: Jaguars 73%, +17.7
How it happened
The swing: C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Hamilton, Holder-L.Cooke. in the fourth quarter at 0:00, which moved the home side's chances from 25% to 100%.
- Largest lead: Jaguars by 7. Lead changes: 4.
- Jaguars's live win probability ranged from 0% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 3:20: Parker Washington 27 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little PAT Failed) (PHI 14, JAX 16)
- Q4 0:08: Jake Elliott 48 Yd Field Goal (PHI 17, JAX 16)
- Q4 0:00: Cam Little 57 Yd Field Goal (PHI 17, JAX 19)
The box score
The Jaguars won the yards, 408 to 232.
- Total yards: PHI 232, JAX 408
- Yards per play: PHI 3.9, JAX 6.0
- Third downs: PHI 6-15, JAX 5-16
- Turnovers: PHI 0, JAX 1
- Penalties: PHI 7-43, JAX 13-100
- Possession: PHI 24:58, JAX 35:02
- Red zone: PHI 1-1, JAX 0-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Jaguars +8 to 1610, Eagles -8 to 1485. The quarterback adjustment going in was JAX +3, PHI +17.
- Jalen Hurts (PHI): 21/40, 220 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 77.1
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX): 24/39, 331 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 95.1
- Rushing: Bhayshul Tuten (JAX), 22 CAR, 72 YDS
- Receiving: Parker Washington (JAX), 6 REC, 124 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Dameon Pierce (PHI), 11 CAR, 14 YDS
- Receiving: Darius Cooper (PHI), 2 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +8.6 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +17.6 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Jaguars 77%, +19.7.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Chicago Bears rose to 1639; Seattle Seahawks fell to 1608. Read more →
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 6-1. AFC North: Steelers 6-2. AFC South: Jaguars 5-2. AFC West: Broncos 6-2. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-1. NFC South: Panthers 3-4. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Lions at Dolphins, 6 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%). Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 9 AM ET; last change Sun 8:42 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward JAX by 19 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (JAX) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 59% | 77% | +18 | 26 |
| Polymarket | 57% | 77% | +20 | 42 |
| Sportsbooks | 57% | 77% | +20 | 24 |
Consensus over time