San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 8:25 PM · outdoors
San Francisco 49ers1–0 · Elo 1584 · Brock Purdy
Seattle Seahawks
1–0 · Elo 1636 · Drew Lock (-30) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SEA | SF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 60% | 60% | 40% | SEA 1636 vs SF 1584, implied spread SEA −2.8 |
| Closing spread | SEA 60% | 60% | 40% | SEA -3.5 |
| The blend | SEA 62% | 62% | 38% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Seattle Seahawks over the 49ers: Elo 60%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 30 Elo.
Details
- Rest: SEA 7 days, SF 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: SEA -30 (Drew Lock), SF -1 (Brock Purdy). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.