Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Final, recorded Sun 7:46 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:00 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Lumen Field · Sunday, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · outdoors · wind 7 mph, 57°F
San Francisco 49ers6–1 · Elo 1619 · Brock Purdy
32–29
Seattle Seahawks
4–3 · Elo 1643 · Drew Lock (−30 Elo) · Home
Final: SF 32, SEA 29. Elo moved SEA 1649 → 1633 and SF 1629 → 1645.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SEA | SF | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 | SEA 1649 vs SF 1629, implied spread SEA −1.5 |
| Closing spread | SEA 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 | SEA -3 |
| Sportsbooks | SEA 61% | 61% | 39% | -12.2 | |
| Kalshi | SEA 61% | 61% | 40% | -12.2 | |
| Polymarket | SEA 60% | 60% | 41% | -11.0 | |
| The blend | SEA 62% | 62% | 38% | -13.4 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Seattle Seahawks over the 49ers: Elo 59%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 30 Elo.
Details
- Importance 34 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 80.
- Rest: SEA 7 days, SF 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. SEA: Drew Lock (-30 Elo). SF: Brock Purdy (-1 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph, 57°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread SEA -3, total 46.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $652k traded, $597k open · Polymarket: $429k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
49ers 32, Seahawks 29: the upset. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 5. The 49ers won 32 to 29 as a 60% underdog by the market; the game turned on G.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (G.Halton). FUMBLES (G.Halton), touched at SEA 0. Attendance 68,664. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the 49ers at 40%, Elo at 41%, The System at 38%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-9.8).
- Elo: 49ers 41%, -9.8
- The market: 49ers 40%, -11.0
- The System: 49ers 38%, -13.4
- The bot crowd: 49ers 37%, -14.7
How it happened
The swing: G.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (G.Halton). FUMBLES (G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman. in the second quarter at 0:13, which moved the home side's chances from 43% to 22%.
- Largest lead: 49ers by 8. Lead changes: 4.
- 49ers's live win probability ranged from 28% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 11:02: Brandin Cooks 7 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Brock Purdy Pass to Mike Evans for Two-Point Conversion) (SF 29, SEA 26)
- Q4 6:55: Jason Myers 40 Yd Field Goal (SF 29, SEA 29)
- Q4 1:56: Eddy Pineiro 44 Yd Field Goal (SF 32, SEA 29)
The box score
The 49ers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: SF 269, SEA 251
- Yards per play: SF 4.8, SEA 4.2
- Third downs: SF 4-12, SEA 3-12
- Turnovers: SF 3, SEA 4
- Penalties: SF 8-70, SEA 5-46
- Possession: SF 29:02, SEA 30:58
- Red zone: SF 3-3, SEA 2-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Seahawks -16 to 1633, 49ers +16 to 1645. The quarterback adjustment going in was SEA -30, SF -1.
- Brock Purdy (SF): 19/29, 189 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 92.5
- Sam Darnold (SEA): 18/29, 195 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 64.6
- Rushing: Emanuel Wilson (SEA), 20 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), 5 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Christian McCaffrey (SF), 11 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Mike Evans (SF), 7 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -11.6 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -14.9 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Seahawks 58%, -8.6.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 3:39 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from SEA by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (SEA) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 64% | 61% | -3 | 50 |
| Polymarket | 64% | 60% | -4 | 39 |
| Sportsbooks | 62% | 61% | -2 | 20 |
Consensus over time