Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Final, recorded Sun 3:58 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:56 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field · Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 9 mph, 56°F
Baltimore Ravens4–4 · Elo 1503 · Tyler Huntley (−16 Elo)
10–13
Cleveland Browns
5–3 · Elo 1450 · Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo) · Home
Final: BAL 10, CLE 13. Elo moved CLE 1446 → 1461 and BAL 1569 → 1554.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CLE | BAL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BAL 54% | 46% | 54% | -4.2 | CLE 1446 vs BAL 1569, implied spread CLE +1.0 |
| Closing spread | BAL 59% | 41% | 59% | -9.8 | CLE +3 |
| Sportsbooks | BAL 61% | 39% | 61% | -12.2 | |
| Kalshi | BAL 61% | 40% | 61% | -11.0 | |
| Polymarket | BAL 62% | 39% | 62% | -12.2 | |
| The blend | BAL 59% | 41% | 59% | -9.8 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Baltimore Ravens over the Browns: Elo 54%, market 61%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Watson is worth 34 Elo; Huntley is costing 16 Elo.
Details
- Importance 40 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 35.
- Rest: CLE 7 days, BAL 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. CLE: Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo). BAL: Tyler Huntley (-16 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 9 mph, 56°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread CLE +3, total 39.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.5M traded, $1.3M open · Polymarket: $112k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Browns 13, Ravens 10: the upset. Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, Week 6. The Browns won 13 to 10 as a 61% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep middle to J.Jeudy to BLT 29 for 33 yards (M.Starks).. Attendance 65,872. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Browns at 39%, Elo at 46%, The System at 41%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-4.2).
- Elo: Browns 46%, -4.2
- The market: Browns 39%, -12.2
- The System: Browns 41%, -9.8
- The bot crowd: Browns 41%, -9.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep middle to J.Jeudy to BLT 29 for 33 yards (M.Starks). in the fourth quarter at 0:42, which moved the home side's chances from 56% to 85%.
- Largest lead: Ravens by 10. Lead changes: 1.
- Browns's live win probability ranged from 12% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 7:48: Andre Szmyt 48 Yd Field Goal (BAL 10, CLE 3)
- Q4 8:33: Audric Estime 2 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick) (BAL 10, CLE 10)
- Q4 0:00: Andre Szmyt 37 Yd Field Goal (BAL 10, CLE 13)
The box score
The Browns won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: BAL 235, CLE 237
- Yards per play: BAL 4.1, CLE 4.0
- Third downs: BAL 6-16, CLE 5-16
- Turnovers: BAL 1, CLE 0
- Penalties: BAL 6-29, CLE 6-45
- Possession: BAL 28:07, CLE 31:53
- Red zone: BAL 1-2, CLE 1-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Browns +15 to 1461, Ravens -15 to 1554. The quarterback adjustment going in was CLE +34, BAL -16.
- Tyler Huntley (BAL): 19/31, 165 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 86.1
- Deshaun Watson (CLE): 16/26, 164 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 79.6
- Rushing: Jaleel McLaughlin (CLE), 9 CAR, 41 YDS
- Receiving: Jerry Jeudy (CLE), 4 REC, 69 YDS
- Rushing: Derrick Henry (BAL), 17 CAR, 58 YDS
- Receiving: Zay Flowers (BAL), 6 REC, 66 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -10.4 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -9.3 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Ravens 54%, -4.2.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 10, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:56 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward CLE by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (CLE) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 37% | 39% | +2 | 34 |
| Kalshi | 37% | 40% | +3 | 76 |
| Sportsbooks | 38% | 39% | +1 | 19 |
Consensus over time