Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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New York Giants at Houston Texans
Final, recorded Sun 4:23 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:55 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 7, 2026 · Reliant Stadium · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · closed
New York Giants4–2–1 · Elo 1504 · J.J. McCarthy (−88 Elo)
27–21
Houston Texans
2–5 · Elo 1498 · C.J. Stroud · Home
Final: NYG 27, HOU 21. Elo moved HOU 1530 → 1498 and NYG 1472 → 1504.
Lock of the week. HOU · Elo gives the Houston Texans 69% at home against the New York Giants and the market says 70%. No game this week has both more sure of the same team. Winston is worth -71 Elo to the Giants. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | HOU | NYG | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 76% | 76% | 24% | -32.8 | HOU 1530 vs NYG 1472, implied spread HOU −7.9 |
| Closing spread | HOU 77% | 77% | 23% | -34.3 | HOU -10 |
| Sportsbooks | HOU 80% | 80% | 20% | -39.0 | |
| Kalshi | HOU 81% | 81% | 19% | -40.6 | |
| Polymarket | HOU 81% | 81% | 19% | -40.6 | |
| The blend | HOU 79% | 79% | 21% | -37.4 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Houston Texans over the Giants: Elo 76%, market 80%. Clear favorite, take the average. McCarthy is costing 88 Elo.
Details
- Importance 48 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 33.
- Rest: HOU 7 days, NYG 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. HOU: C.J. Stroud (+1 Elo). NYG: J.J. McCarthy (-88 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread HOU -10.5, total 42.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $508k traded, $461k open · Polymarket: $118k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Giants 27, Texans 21: the upset. New York Giants at Houston Texans, Week 7. The Giants won 27 to 21 as a 80% underdog by the market; the game turned on C.Skattebo up the middle to HST 30 for 42 yards (K.Lassiter).. Attendance 71,052. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Giants at 20%, Elo at 24%, The System at 19%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-32.8).
This was the lock (Houston Texans) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Giants 24%, -32.8
- The market: Giants 20%, -39.0
- The System: Giants 19%, -40.6
- The bot crowd: Giants 20%, -39.0
How it happened
The swing: C.Skattebo up the middle to HST 30 for 42 yards (K.Lassiter). in the 5th quarter at 8:23, which moved the home side's chances from 45% to 15%.
- Largest lead: Giants by 8. Lead changes: 1.
- Giants's live win probability ranged from 12% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 8:55: Cam Skattebo 16 Yd Rush (Dominic Zvada Kick) (NYG 21, HOU 14)
- Q4 0:52: Xavier Hutchinson 3 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) (NYG 21, HOU 21)
- Q5 7:25: Devin Singletary 30 Yd Rush (NYG 27, HOU 21)
The box score
The Giants won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: NYG 420, HOU 237
- Yards per play: NYG 6.5, HOU 4.4
- Third downs: NYG 5-13, HOU 3-12
- Turnovers: NYG 0, HOU 0
- Penalties: NYG 4-50, HOU 10-80
- Possession: NYG 35:50, HOU 26:45
- Red zone: NYG 3-3, HOU 2-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Texans -32 to 1498, Giants +32 to 1504. The quarterback adjustment going in was HOU +1, NYG -88.
- J.J. McCarthy (NYG): 20/28, 252 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 99.1
- C.J. Stroud (HOU): 17/28, 153 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 99.3
- Rushing: Woody Marks (HOU), 19 CAR, 66 YDS
- Receiving: Dalton Schultz (HOU), 5 REC, 45 YDS
- Rushing: Cam Skattebo (NYG), 17 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Malik Nabers (NYG), 7 REC, 111 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -29.8 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -38.3 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Texans 74%, -29.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 17, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 9:37 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward HOU by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (HOU) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 76% | 81% | +5 | 52 |
| Kalshi | 76% | 81% | +5 | 66 |
| Sportsbooks | 77% | 80% | +3 | 19 |
Consensus over time