Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Game data updated 2 min ago · markets priced 9 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Caesars Superdome · Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · dome
Cleveland Browns5–3 · Elo 1450 · Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo)
New Orleans Saints
2–5 · Elo 1451 · Tyler Shough (−16 Elo) · off a bye · Home
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CLENO
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NO | CLE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NO 53% | 53% | 47% | NO 1451 vs CLE 1450, implied spread NO −1.0 |
| Closing spread | NO 57% | 57% | 43% | NO -2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NO 57% | 57% | 43% | |
| Kalshi | NO 57% | 57% | 43% | |
| Polymarket | NO 58% | 58% | 42% | |
| The blend | NO 56% | 56% | 44% |
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The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
New Orleans Saints over the Browns: Elo 53%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; NO off a bye.
Details
- Importance 37 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 17.
- Rest: NO 14 days, CLE 7 days. NO off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. NO: Tyler Shough (-16 Elo). CLE: Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread NO -2.5, total 43.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $5k traded, $3k open · Polymarket: $117 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Cesar Ruiz | G | Questionable | Knee · questionable |
| NO | CJ Donaldson | RB | Questionable | Shoulder · Donaldson (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris. |
| NO | Justin Reid | S | Questionable | Concussion · Reid (concussion) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris. |
| NO | Nathan Shepherd | DT | Questionable | Illness · questionable |
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 2 PM ET; last change Mon 6:36 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward NO by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NO) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 57% | 58% | +1 | 23 |
| Kalshi | 57% | 57% | +1 | 41 |
| Sportsbooks | 57% | 57% | — | 4 |
Consensus over time