Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Game data updated 3 min ago · markets priced 10 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium · Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 5 mph, 61°F
Denver Broncos6–2 · Elo 1617 · Bo Nix
Carolina Panthers
3–4 · Elo 1446 · Bryce Young · off a bye · Home
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DENCAR
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CAR | DEN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 63% | 37% | 63% | CAR 1446 vs DEN 1617, implied spread CAR +3.7 |
| Closing spread | DEN 59% | 41% | 59% | CAR +3 |
| Sportsbooks | DEN 58% | 42% | 58% | |
| Kalshi | DEN 59% | 41% | 59% | |
| Polymarket | DEN 59% | 41% | 59% | |
| The blend | DEN 60% | 40% | 60% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Denver Broncos over the Panthers: Elo 63%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. CAR off a bye.
Details
- Importance 33 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 42.
- Rest: CAR 10 days, DEN 7 days. CAR off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. CAR: Bryce Young (+6 Elo). DEN: Bo Nix (-1 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph, 61°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread CAR +3, total 43.75. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $4k traded, $3k open · Polymarket: $408 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Talanoa Hufanga | S | Out | Ankle · out |
| DEN | Brandon Jones | S | Questionable | Hamstring · Jones (hamstring) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's contest against the Chiefs, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports. |
| DEN | Kris Abrams-Draine | CB | Questionable | Ankle · Abrams-Draine (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest versus the Chiefs, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports. |
| CAR | AJ Dillon | RB | Out | Coach's Decision · Dillon (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday night's contest against the Packers, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| CAR | Bobby Brown III | DT | Out | Hand · Brown (hand) is inactive for Thursday night's matchup against the Packers, Darin Gantt of the Panthers' official website reports. |
| CAR | Damien Lewis | G | Out | Knee · Lewis (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Packers. |
| CAR | Haynes King | QB | Out | Coach's Decision · King (coach's decision) is inactive but operating as the Panthers' emergency No. 3 quarterback against the Packers on Thursday night, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| CAR | Ja'Tavion Sanders | TE | Out | Coach's Decision · Sanders (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday night's matchup with Green Bay, Darin Gantt of the team's official website reports. |
| CAR | Jaelan Phillips | LB | Out | Hamstring · Phillips (hamstring) is considered day-to-day, Joe Person of The Athletic reported Monday. |
| CAR | Torricelli Simpkins III | G | Out | Ankle · Simpkins (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Packers. |
| CAR | Corey Bullock | C | Questionable | Quadriceps · Bullock (quadriceps) exited Thursday's 27-19 loss to Green Bay and did not return, Sheena Quick of Fox Sports Radio 1340 reports. |
| CAR | Will Lee III | CB | Questionable | Hamstring · Lee (hamstring) is day to day but should have a chance to "test" his injury this week, Joe Person of The Athletic reports. |
On the Wire
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 2 PM ET; last change Mon 9:51 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from CAR by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (CAR) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 43% | 41% | -2 | 36 |
| Polymarket | 45% | 41% | -4 | 45 |
| Sportsbooks | 44% | 42% | -2 | 5 |
Consensus over time