Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
Game data updated 3 min ago · markets priced 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Levi's Stadium · Sunday, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET · outdoors · wind 6 mph, 73°F
Las Vegas Raiders4–4 · Elo 1414 · Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo)
San Francisco 49ers
6–1 · Elo 1619 · Brock Purdy · off a bye · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SF | LV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SF 77% | 77% | 23% | SF 1619 vs LV 1414, implied spread SF −8.3 |
| Closing spread | SF 77% | 77% | 23% | SF -10 |
| Sportsbooks | SF 80% | 80% | 20% | |
| Kalshi | SF 81% | 81% | 19% | |
| Polymarket | SF 81% | 81% | 19% | |
| The blend | SF 82% | 82% | 18% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
San Francisco 49ers over the Raiders: Elo 77%, market 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; SF off a bye.
Details
- Importance 23 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 36.
- Rest: SF 14 days, LV 7 days. SF off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. SF: Brock Purdy (-1 Elo). LV: Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 6 mph, 73°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread SF -10, total 51.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $57k traded, $43k open · Polymarket: $1k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Darien Porter | CB | Questionable | Groin · Porter (groin) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Jets. |
| SF | Brandon Aiyuk | WR | Out | Personal · Aiyuk is close to hiring new representation and is expected to file for reinstatement to the NFL in the near future, according to NFL reporter Jordan Schultz. |
| SF | Christian McCaffrey | RB | Questionable | Hamstring · McCaffrey is dealing with a mild hamstring strain rather than a quadriceps injury, and the 49ers believe he'll be ready following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SF Standard reports. |
| SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | Questionable | Hamstring · Samuel (hamstring) has a chance to return following the 49ers' Week 8 bye, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. |
| SF | Garret Wallow | LB | Questionable | Hamstring · questionable |
| SF | Luke Gifford | LB | Questionable | Groin · questionable |
| SF | Marques Sigle | S | Questionable | Ankle · questionable |
| SF | Mike Evans | WR | Questionable | Achilles · Evans (Achilles) is expected to return after San Francisco's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SF Standard reports. |
| SF | Nick Bosa | DE | Questionable | Knee · San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Bosa (knee) "has a chance" to return to action Nov. 8 versus the Raiders following a Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports. |
| SF | Upton Stout | CB | Questionable | Shoulder - AC Joint · Stout (shoulder) was only active as an emergency depth option during Sunday's loss to the Falcons, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reported Monday. |
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 5 PM ET; last change Mon 7:10 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from SF by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (SF) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 84% | 81% | -3 | 41 |
| Polymarket | 83% | 81% | -2 | 45 |
| Sportsbooks | 82% | 80% | -2 | 5 |
Consensus over time