Importance 51 of 100, the biggest swing in the league's playoff picture on the schedule. Elo has CHI at 68%. Read more →
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears
Game data updated 2 min ago · markets priced 10 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Soldier Field · Sunday, Nov 8, 8:20 PM ET · outdoors · wind 4 mph, 53°F
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3–5 · Elo 1523 · Baker Mayfield
Chicago Bears
5–2 · Elo 1604 · Caleb Williams · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CHI | TB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CHI 68% | 68% | 32% | CHI 1604 vs TB 1523, implied spread CHI −5.1 |
| Sportsbooks | CHI 68% | 68% | 32% | |
| Kalshi | CHI 69% | 69% | 31% | |
| Polymarket | CHI 69% | 69% | 31% | |
| The blend | CHI 70% | 70% | 30% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Chicago Bears over the Buccaneers: Elo 68%, market 68%. Tight agreement: go above both.
Details
- Importance 51 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 54.
- Rest: CHI 6 days, TB 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. CHI: Caleb Williams (0 Elo). TB: Baker Mayfield (0 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 4 mph, 53°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread CHI -5, total 47. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $7k traded, $6k open · Polymarket: $325 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Emeka Egbuka | WR | Out | Foot · out |
| TB | Yaya Diaby | LB | Out | Knee - MCL · Head coach Todd Bowles said that Diaby (knee) has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain and won't be available for Sunday's game against the Bears, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| CHI | Case Keenum | QB | Out | Coach's Decision · Keenum (coach's decision) is inactive but will operate as the Bears' emergency third quarterback for Monday night's matchup against the Seahawks. |
| CHI | Jayden Loving | DT | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| CHI | Jordan McFadden | G | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| CHI | Jordan van den Berg | DT | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| CHI | Kyle Monangai | RB | Out | Thumb · inactive |
| CHI | Malik Muhammad II | CB | Out | Toe · Muhammad (toe) is inactive for Monday's game against the Seahawks. |
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 9 PM ET; last change Mon 10:37 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from CHI by 5 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (CHI) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% | 69% | -4 | 41 |
| Polymarket | 74% | 69% | -5 | 46 |
| Sportsbooks | 71% | 68% | -3 | 4 |
Consensus over time