Game plan · Week 11
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 50.8 points this week, give or take 70 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 52.0.
A typical week lands between -19 and 121. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -39.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 13 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND at HOU Thu 8:15 PM ET | HOU 69% | 66% | +2.6 | No market line yet. |
| TB at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET | DET 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| MIA at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NO at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | CHI 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| TEN at DAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | DAL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| BAL at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET | CAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| ARI at KC Sun 1:00 PM ET | KC 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| JAX at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NYJ at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET | LAC 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PIT at PHI Sun 4:25 PM ET | PIT 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LV at DEN Sun 4:25 PM ET | DEN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| MIN at SF Sun 8:20 PM ET | MIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CIN at WSH Mon 8:15 PM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.