Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Final, recorded Sun 4:10 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:53 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Carolina Panthers3–4 · Elo 1446 · Bryce Young
34–3
Atlanta Falcons
3–5 · Elo 1457 · Tua Tagovailoa (+16 Elo) · Home
Final: CAR 34, ATL 3. Elo moved ATL 1465 → 1419 and CAR 1431 → 1476.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | CAR | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | ATL 63% | 63% | 37% | -14.7 | ATL 1465 vs CAR 1431, implied spread ATL −3.7 |
| Closing spread | CAR 57% | 43% | 57% | +6.5 | ATL +2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | CAR 58% | 42% | 58% | +7.4 | |
| Kalshi | CAR 55% | 45% | 55% | +4.8 | |
| Polymarket | CAR 54% | 46% | 54% | +3.8 | |
| The blend | CAR 51% | 49% | 51% | +1.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Carolina Panthers over the Falcons: Elo 37%, market 56%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Tagovailoa is worth 16 Elo.
Details
- Importance 47 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 16.
- Rest: ATL 7 days, CAR 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. ATL: Tua Tagovailoa (+16 Elo). CAR: Bryce Young (+6 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread ATL +2.5, total 43.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $499k traded, $412k open · Polymarket: $1.5M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
- Markets disagree with each other: Books 42% vs Polymarket 46%, 3 points apart.
The post-game report
Panthers 34, Falcons 3. Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Week 2. The Panthers won 34 to 3; the game turned on (Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra . Attendance 71,143. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Panthers at 56%, Elo at 37%, The System at 53%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+5.6).
- Elo: Panthers 37%, -14.7
- The market: Panthers 56%, +5.6
- The System: Panthers 53%, +2.9
- The bot crowd: Panthers 54%, +3.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to C.Hubbard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin. in the first quarter at 10:48, which moved the home side's chances from 34% to 25%.
- Largest lead: Panthers by 31. Lead changes: 0.
- Panthers's live win probability ranged from 60% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q2 0:20: Darren Waller 7 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) (CAR 20, ATL 3)
- Q3 9:38: Darren Waller 12 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) (CAR 27, ATL 3)
- Q3 2:58: Devin Lloyd 16 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) (CAR 34, ATL 3)
The box score
The Panthers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: CAR 340, ATL 286
- Yards per play: CAR 5.7, ATL 4.3
- Third downs: CAR 6-14, ATL 4-13
- Turnovers: CAR 0, ATL 5
- Penalties: CAR 9-63, ATL 6-39
- Possession: CAR 29:31, ATL 30:29
- Red zone: CAR 3-6, ATL 0-0
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Falcons -46 to 1419, Panthers +46 to 1476. The quarterback adjustment going in was ATL +16, CAR +6.
- Bryce Young (CAR): 23/36, 287 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 116.3
- Cooper Rush (ATL): 10/17, 86 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 32.6
- Rushing: Bijan Robinson (ATL), 16 CAR, 72 YDS
- Receiving: Drake London (ATL), 4 REC, 51 YDS
- Rushing: Chuba Hubbard (CAR), 12 CAR, 53 YDS
- Receiving: Tetairoa McMillan (CAR), 5 REC, 101 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -11.0 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +3.3 and 7 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Marketeer, Panthers 57%, +6.5.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 12:53 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward ATL by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (ATL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 45% | +1 | 2 |
| Polymarket | 43% | 46% | +3 | 5 |
| Sportsbooks | 43% | 42% | -1 | 6 |
Consensus over time