Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Final, recorded Sun 6:20 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:53 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites)
Cleveland Browns5–3 · Elo 1450 · Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo)
23–19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3–5 · Elo 1523 · Baker Mayfield · Home
Final: CLE 23, TB 19. Elo moved TB 1466 → 1447 and CLE 1423 → 1442.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TB | CLE | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | TB 58% | 58% | 42% | -8.6 | TB 1466 vs CLE 1423, implied spread TB −2.3 |
| Closing spread | TB 74% | 74% | 26% | -29.8 | TB -8.5 |
| Sportsbooks | TB 78% | 78% | 22% | -35.8 | |
| Kalshi | TB 79% | 79% | 21% | -37.4 | |
| Polymarket | TB 78% | 78% | 22% | -35.8 | |
| The blend | TB 73% | 73% | 27% | -28.3 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Browns: Elo 58%, market 78%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 51 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 15.
- Rest: TB 7 days, CLE 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. TB: Baker Mayfield (0 Elo). CLE: Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread TB -8.5, total 41.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $532k traded, $494k open · Polymarket: $591k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Browns 23, Buccaneers 19: the upset. Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 2. The Browns won 23 to 19 as a 78% underdog by the market; the game turned on D.Watson pass short left to B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Szmyt extra point is G. Attendance 61,391. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Browns at 22%, Elo at 42%, The System at 29%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-8.6).
- Elo: Browns 42%, -8.6
- The market: Browns 22%, -35.8
- The System: Browns 29%, -25.4
- The bot crowd: Browns 28%, -26.8
How it happened
The swing: D.Watson pass short left to B.Whiteheart for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez. in the fourth quarter at 3:51, which moved the home side's chances from 55% to 32%.
- Largest lead: Buccaneers by 10. Lead changes: 1.
- Browns's live win probability ranged from 9% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 1:23: Denzel Boston 55 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick) (CLE 16, TB 16)
- Q4 9:58: Chase McLaughlin 31 Yd Field Goal (CLE 16, TB 19)
- Q4 3:51: Blake Whiteheart 17 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick) (CLE 23, TB 19)
The box score
The Buccaneers outgained the Browns (313 to 267 yards) and lost on turnovers (1 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: CLE 267, TB 313
- Yards per play: CLE 4.9, TB 5.0
- Third downs: CLE 5-13, TB 7-16
- Turnovers: CLE 0, TB 1
- Penalties: CLE 6-50, TB 6-62
- Possession: CLE 29:22, TB 30:38
- Red zone: CLE 1-3, TB 1-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Buccaneers -19 to 1447, Browns +19 to 1442. The quarterback adjustment going in was TB +0, CLE +34.
- Deshaun Watson (CLE): 24/30, 238 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 121.9
- Baker Mayfield (TB): 21/34, 182 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 73.4
- Rushing: Bucky Irving (TB), 17 CAR, 89 YDS
- Receiving: Tez Johnson (TB), 1 REC, 49 YDS
- Rushing: Deshaun Watson (CLE), 7 CAR, 22 YDS
- Receiving: Denzel Boston (CLE), 5 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -47.5 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -27.8 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Contrarian, Buccaneers 58%, -8.6.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 10:34 AM ET. The consensus has moved away from TB by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (TB) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 78% | 78% | — | 6 |
| Kalshi | 79% | 79% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 79% | 78% | -1 | 1 |
Consensus over time