Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
Final, recorded Sun 4:14 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:54 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 5 mph, 63°F
Arizona Cardinals3–5 · Elo 1439 · Jacoby Brissett (−40 Elo)
24–36
New York Giants
4–2–1 · Elo 1504 · Jameis Winston (−71 Elo) · Home
Final: ARI 24, NYG 36. Elo moved NYG 1471 → 1495 and ARI 1461 → 1438.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYG | ARI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NYG 54% | 54% | 46% | +3.8 | NYG 1471 vs ARI 1461, implied spread NYG −1.1 |
| Closing spread | ARI 57% | 43% | 57% | -7.5 | NYG +2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | ARI 56% | 44% | 56% | -6.4 | |
| Kalshi | ARI 55% | 45% | 55% | -5.2 | |
| Polymarket | ARI 55% | 45% | 55% | -5.2 | |
| The blend | ARI 53% | 47% | 53% | -3.1 | |
| The crowd (3) | NYG 54% | 54% | 46% | +3.8 | |
| The sharp crowd | NYG 54% | 54% | 46% | +3.8 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Arizona Cardinals over the Giants: Elo 46%, market 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
Details
- Importance 35 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 22.
- Rest: NYG 7 days, ARI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. NYG: Jameis Winston (-71 Elo). ARI: Jacoby Brissett (-40 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph, 63°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread NYG +2.5, total 44.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $530k traded, $509k open · Polymarket: $921k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Giants 36, Cardinals 24: back and forth. Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants, Week 4. The Giants won 36 to 24; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short left intended for Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by D.Banks at NYG. Attendance 80,893. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Giants at 44%, Elo at 54%, The System at 47%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+3.8).
- Elo: Giants 54%, +3.8
- The market: Giants 44%, -6.4
- The System: Giants 47%, -3.1
- The crowd: Giants 54%, +3.8
- The bot crowd: Giants 46%, -4.2
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short left intended for Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by D.Banks at NYG 2. D.Banks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. in the fourth quarter at 0:00, which moved the home side's chances from 54% to 100%.
- Largest lead: Giants by 12. Lead changes: 3.
- Giants's live win probability ranged from 22% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 1:44: Theo Johnson 11 Yd pass from Jameis Winston (Najee Harris Run for Two-Point Conversion) (ARI 24, NYG 27)
- Q4 2:11: Dominic Zvada 52 Yd Field Goal (ARI 24, NYG 30)
- Q4 0:00: Deonte Banks 98 Yd Interception Return (ARI 24, NYG 36)
The box score
The Giants won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: ARI 270, NYG 319
- Yards per play: ARI 4.3, NYG 5.2
- Third downs: ARI 4-12, NYG 7-15
- Turnovers: ARI 3, NYG 3
- Penalties: ARI 7-55, NYG 6-44
- Possession: ARI 27:47, NYG 32:13
- Red zone: ARI 2-3, NYG 2-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Giants +23 to 1495, Cardinals -23 to 1438. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYG -71, ARI -40.
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 21/35, 166 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, QBR 55.2
- Jameis Winston (NYG): 18/29, 250 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, QBR 95.5
- Rushing: Cam Skattebo (NYG), 18 CAR, 58 YDS
- Receiving: Malik Nabers (NYG), 6 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Jeremiyah Love (ARI), 14 CAR, 63 YDS
- Receiving: Michael Wilson (ARI), 7 REC, 95 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +3.7 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -3.9 and 1 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Giants 56%, +5.6.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 26, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:32 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from NYG by 11 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NYG) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 56% | 45% | -11 | 47 |
| Polymarket | 56% | 45% | -11 | 38 |
| Sportsbooks | 55% | 44% | -11 | 21 |
Consensus over time