Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Final, recorded Sun 4:10 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:44 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Lambeau Field · Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 13 mph, 71°F
Chicago Bears5–2 · Elo 1604 · Tyson Bagent (−100 Elo)
7–31
Green Bay Packers
5–3 · Elo 1533 · Jordan Love · Home
Final: CHI 7, GB 31. Elo moved GB 1481 → 1509 and CHI 1594 → 1566.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | GB | CHI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | GB 55% | 55% | 45% | +4.8 | GB 1481 vs CHI 1594, implied spread GB −1.4 |
| Closing spread | CHI 54% | 46% | 54% | -4.2 | GB +1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | CHI 52% | 48% | 52% | -2.0 | |
| Kalshi | CHI 53% | 48% | 53% | -2.0 | |
| Polymarket | CHI 52% | 49% | 52% | -1.0 | |
| The blend | CHI 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Chicago Bears over the Packers: Elo 45%, market 52%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Bagent is costing 100 Elo.
Details
- Importance 36 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 45.
- Rest: GB 7 days, CHI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. GB: Jordan Love (+0 Elo). CHI: Tyson Bagent (-100 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 13 mph, 71°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread GB +1, total 47. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $888k traded, $851k open · Polymarket: $399k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Packers 31, Bears 7. Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, Week 5. The Packers won 31 to 7; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point. Attendance 77,755. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Packers at 48%, Elo at 55%, The System at 50%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+4.8).
- Elo: Packers 55%, +4.8
- The market: Packers 48%, -2.0
- The System: Packers 50%, +0.0
- The bot crowd: Packers 47%, -3.1
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan. in the third quarter at 13:10, which moved the home side's chances from 68% to 86%.
- Largest lead: Packers by 24. Lead changes: 0.
- Packers's live win probability ranged from 39% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 13:10: Christian Watson 53 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack PAT Failed) (CHI 7, GB 20)
- Q3 1:58: Trey Smack 35 Yd Field Goal (CHI 7, GB 23)
- Q4 14:55: MarShawn Lloyd 4 Yd Rush (Jordan Love Pass to Matthew Golden for Two-Point Conversion) (CHI 7, GB 31)
The box score
The Packers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: CHI 246, GB 428
- Yards per play: CHI 3.6, GB 7.3
- Third downs: CHI 4-14, GB 4-12
- Turnovers: CHI 5, GB 0
- Penalties: CHI 3-20, GB 4-25
- Possession: CHI 29:36, GB 30:24
- Red zone: CHI 1-2, GB 2-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Packers +28 to 1509, Bears -28 to 1566. The quarterback adjustment going in was GB +0, CHI -100.
- Case Keenum (CHI): 11/19, 108 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 52.1
- Jordan Love (GB): 25/31, 367 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 137.5
- Rushing: MarShawn Lloyd (GB), 10 CAR, 31 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Christian Watson (GB), 6 REC, 143 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: D'Andre Swift (CHI), 9 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Luther Burden III (CHI), 4 REC, 47 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +6.0 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -3.0 and 1 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Mendo, Packers 57%, +6.5.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:44 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from GB by 7 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (GB) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 55% | 49% | -7 | 39 |
| Sportsbooks | 55% | 48% | -8 | 24 |
| Kalshi | 55% | 48% | -8 | 46 |
Consensus over time