Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Final, recorded Sun 3:50 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:55 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 7, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium · Sunday, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 11 mph, 64°F
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3–5 · Elo 1523 · Baker Mayfield
43–13
Carolina Panthers
3–4 · Elo 1446 · Bryce Young · Home
Final: TB 43, CAR 13. Elo moved CAR 1509 → 1461 and TB 1451 → 1498.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CAR | TB | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CAR 65% | 65% | 35% | -17.2 | CAR 1509 vs TB 1451, implied spread CAR −4.4 |
| Closing spread | CAR 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 | CAR -3 |
| Sportsbooks | CAR 59% | 59% | 41% | -9.8 | |
| Kalshi | CAR 61% | 61% | 40% | -12.2 | |
| Polymarket | CAR 60% | 60% | 41% | -11.0 | |
| The blend | CAR 61% | 61% | 39% | -12.2 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Carolina Panthers over the Buccaneers: Elo 65%, market 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.
Details
- Importance 47 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 26.
- Rest: CAR 7 days, TB 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. CAR: Bryce Young (+6 Elo). TB: Baker Mayfield (0 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 11 mph, 64°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread CAR -3, total 44.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $470k traded, $456k open · Polymarket: $569k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, Week 7. The Buccaneers won 43 to 13; the game turned on (Shotgun) B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (A.Muhammad) [A.Muha. Attendance 73,195. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Buccaneers at 40%, Elo at 35%, The System at 39%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (-11.0).
- Elo: Buccaneers 35%, -17.2
- The market: Buccaneers 40%, -11.0
- The System: Buccaneers 39%, -12.2
- The bot crowd: Buccaneers 40%, -11.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (A.Muhammad) [A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-C.Kancey at CAR 32. C.Kancey for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon. in the second quarter at 11:05, which moved the home side's chances from 25% to 12%.
- Largest lead: Buccaneers by 37. Lead changes: 0.
- Buccaneers's live win probability ranged from 47% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 6:30: Chase McLaughlin 44 Yd Field Goal (TB 36, CAR 6)
- Q4 10:21: Sean Tucker 46 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick) (TB 43, CAR 6)
- Q4 5:28: Anthony Tyus III 12 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) (TB 43, CAR 13)
The box score
The Buccaneers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: TB 322, CAR 266
- Yards per play: TB 5.4, CAR 4.9
- Third downs: TB 7-12, CAR 6-11
- Turnovers: TB 0, CAR 4
- Penalties: TB 6-35, CAR 4-56
- Possession: TB 35:57, CAR 24:03
- Red zone: TB 3-4, CAR 1-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Panthers -47 to 1461, Buccaneers +47 to 1498.
- Baker Mayfield (TB): 7/11, 64 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 109.7
- Bryce Young (CAR): 14/27, 163 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 51.9
- Rushing: Chuba Hubbard (CAR), 7 CAR, 33 YDS
- Receiving: Darren Waller (CAR), 1 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Bucky Irving (TB), 24 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Tez Johnson (TB), 2 REC, 33 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -11.6 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -11.6 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Panthers 56%, -6.4.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 17, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:55 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward CAR by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (CAR) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 59% | 61% | +2 | 29 |
| Polymarket | 57% | 60% | +3 | 50 |
| Sportsbooks | 58% | 59% | +1 | 16 |
Consensus over time