Jaguars at Ravens $226k, Raiders at 49ers $61k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Game data updated just now · markets priced just now · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium · Thursday, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET · outdoors · wind 4 mph, 70°F
Jacksonville Jaguars5–2 · Elo 1605 · Trevor Lawrence
Baltimore Ravens
4–4 · Elo 1503 · Tyler Huntley (−16 Elo) · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BAL | JAX | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | JAX 60% | 40% | 60% | BAL 1503 vs JAX 1605, implied spread BAL +2.9 |
| Closing spread | JAX 74% | 26% | 74% | BAL +8.5 |
| Sportsbooks | JAX 78% | 22% | 78% | |
| Kalshi | JAX 80% | 21% | 80% | |
| Polymarket | JAX 80% | 21% | 80% | |
| The blend | JAX 74% | 26% | 74% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Jacksonville Jaguars over the Ravens: Elo 60%, market 79%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Huntley is costing 16 Elo.
Details
- Importance 28 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 51.
- Rest: BAL 4 days, JAX 4 days.
- Quarterbacks. BAL: Tyler Huntley (-16 Elo). JAX: Trevor Lawrence (+3 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 4 mph, 70°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread BAL +8.5, total 43. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $217k traded, $180k open · Polymarket: $34k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Antonio Johnson | S | Out | Ankle · out |
| JAX | DaVon Hamilton | DT | Out | Knee · Jaguars coach Liam Coen confirmed Monday that Hamilton will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a torn quadriceps in Sunday's win over the Colts, Ryan O'Halloran of The Florida Times-Union reports. |
| JAX | Eric Murray | S | Out | Elbow · Murray will miss the remainder of the season due to an elbow injury, Demetrius Harvey of The Florida Times-Union reports. |
| JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | Questionable | Ankle · Tuten was a non-participant at Monday's walkthrough due to ankle and foot injuries. |
| JAX | Branson Combs | LB | Questionable | Shoulder · questionable |
| JAX | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | Questionable | Hand · Rodriguez was listed as limited on Monday's practice estimate due to a hand injury. |
| JAX | Ezra Cleveland | G | Questionable | Knee · questionable |
| JAX | Jakobi Meyers | WR | Questionable | Hamstring · Meyers was listed as limited on Monday's estimated injury report due to hamstring and ankle issues. |
| JAX | Jarrian Jones | CB | Questionable | Ankle · questionable |
| JAX | Travon Walker | DE | Questionable | Ribs · Walker (ribs) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Colts. |
| BAL | Jaylinn Hawkins | S | Out | Knee · out |
| BAL | Lamar Jackson | QB | Out | Thumb · Ravens head coach Jesse Minter said after Sunday's 36-10 loss to the Bills that Jackson will undergo surgery to address his right thumb injury and will be placed on injured reserve, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports. |
| BAL | Olaivavega Ioane | G | Out | Knee - MCL · out |
| BAL | Joe Fagnano | QB | Questionable | Ankle · Fagnano was limited at Monday's walkthrough due to an ankle injury. |
| BAL | John Jenkins | DT | Questionable | Knee · questionable |
| BAL | John Simpson | G | Questionable | Back · questionable |
| BAL | Justice Hill | RB | Questionable | Groin · Hill (groin) was estimated as a limited participant on Monday's practice report. |
| BAL | Roger Rosengarten | OT | Questionable | Ankle · questionable |
| BAL | Roquan Smith | LB | Questionable | Foot · questionable |
| BAL | Trey Hendrickson | LB | Questionable | Finger · questionable |
| BAL | Tyler Huntley | QB | Questionable | Toe · Head coach Jesse Minter said Monday that Huntley (toe) "probably" won't play Thursday versus the Jaguars, and the Ravens then will "see how it goes from a long-term standpoint." |
| BAL | Tyler Loop | PK | Questionable | Groin · Loop (groin) was estimated as DNP on Monday's injury report. |
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 6-1. AFC North: Steelers 6-2. AFC South: Jaguars 5-2. AFC West: Broncos 6-2. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-1. NFC South: Panthers 3-4. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Lamar Jackson started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Ravens is now -16 points on Jaguars at Ravens. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Lions at Dolphins, 6 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%). Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Wed, Oct 28, 9 PM ET; last change Mon 6:05 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from BAL by 38 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (BAL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 59% | 21% | -38 | 75 |
| Polymarket | 60% | 21% | -39 | 72 |
| Sportsbooks | 59% | 22% | -37 | 8 |
Consensus over time