Pools

Two office-pool formats, driven by The System's numbers. Future weeks use Elo's current forecast blended with any market line that already exists; they firm up as the season goes.

Survivor

One team a week, never the same team twice, and you're out when it loses. The plan below is the exact optimum for surviving the whole season from Week 12 on, given the numbers now. Alternatives are the next-best teams that week.

Teams available: ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LAC, LAR, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, PIT, SEA, SF, TB, TEN, WSH.

Confidence pool · Week 12

Rank every game from most to least confident; a right pick scores its rank. The order that maximizes expected points is simply by The System's win probability, so here it is. The order and the picks are open to all; The System's percentages are for members, except on the featured game and games that have kicked off.