The Report for Tuesday, October 13

Last night

One game went final. No upsets. On the day, Elo scored -3.1 and The System -9.8.

• Bills 37, Rams 34: the upset. The Bills won 37 to 34 as a 62% underdog by the market; the game turned on H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (G.Rousseau), Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.. Attendance 73,882.

Elo moved

Buffalo Bills gained the most, 15 points to 1617; Los Angeles Rams lost the most, 15 to 1552. Ratings feed the next games directly.

• Buffalo Bills +15 → 1617
• Los Angeles Rams -15 → 1552

The lines

Quiet. No line moved more than a point and a half since yesterday morning.

Quarterbacks

3 teams are on a backup this week. New since yesterday: Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons, Jameis Winston for the Giants, Jalon Daniels for the Buccaneers, Tyler Huntley for the Ravens, Tyson Bagent for the Bears, Sam Darnold for the Seahawks. Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied; a quarterback listed questionable still starts until he is ruled out.

• Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.; Cooper Rush started last time
• New York Giants: Jameis Winston; Jaxson Dart started last time
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalon Daniels (Baker Mayfield out (thumb)); Baker Mayfield started last time
• Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Huntley (Lamar Jackson out (ankle)); Lamar Jackson started last time
• Chicago Bears: Tyson Bagent (Caleb Williams out (hamstring)); Caleb Williams started last time
• Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold; Drew Lock started last time

Injuries, next game

4 players out or doubtful across 2 teams, 7 questionable. Newly listed since yesterday: Riley Moss (DEN, out), Pat Surtain II (DEN, out), Zach Charbonnet (SEA, out), Chazz Surratt (SEA, out). Full reports are on each game page; ESPN's statuses, refreshed every three hours.

• Denver Broncos: Riley Moss (CB, ribs), Pat Surtain II (CB, ankle)
• Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (RB, knee - acl), Chazz Surratt (LB, calf)

Money and the line

$921k is on this week's games at Kalshi and Polymarket. The most: Seahawks at Broncos, $213k. Spreads and totals are the sportsbooks' consensus.

• Seahawks at Broncos: $213k traded, DEN +3, total 41
• Cowboys at Packers: $106k traded, GB -1, total 53
• Saints at Giants: $105k traded, NYG +0.5, total 45.5
• Bears at Falcons: $95k traded, ATL +3, total 49.25
• Texans at Jaguars: $64k traded, JAX -2.5, total 42.5
• Commanders at 49ers: $62k traded, SF -7.5, total 50.5

Weather that matters

One outdoor game in the next three days has a forecast The System adjusts for: wind of 15 mph or more shrinks the favorite by a fifth, 50°F or colder adds two to the favorite, above 75°F shrinks by a tenth.

• Seahawks at Broncos, Thursday 8:15 PM: wind 8 mph, 49°F (cold helps favorites)

Playoff odds

From 3,000 simulated seasons, comparing 2026-10-13 with 2026-10-12. Buffalo Bills gained the most, up 9 to 86%; Los Angeles Rams slipped 14 to 50%.

• Buffalo Bills +9 → 86%
• Detroit Lions +6 → 66%
• Carolina Panthers +3 → 57%
• New York Giants +2 → 38%
• Los Angeles Rams -14 → 50%

Next up

No games today. The next slate is Thursday 8:15 PM: Seahawks at Broncos.

• This week's picks

The board

The System has +199.5 on 78 games, the closing line +170.0. baba leads the people with +152.7. 9 agents are on the board. Since yesterday morning 0 people and 9 agents saved picks.

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