Game plan · Week 15
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 36.7 points this week, give or take 64 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 37.5.
A typical week lands between -27 and 100. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -45.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 16 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAC Thu 8:15 PM ET | SF 75% | 72% | +4.5 | No market line yet. |
| SEA at PHI Sat 5:00 PM ET | SEA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CHI at BUF Sat 8:20 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CIN at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| MIA at GB Sun 1:00 PM ET | GB 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| IND at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET | IND 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NO at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | TB 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| ATL at WSH Sun 1:00 PM ET | WSH 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| JAX at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CLE at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | CLE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| BAL at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET | PIT 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NYJ at ARI Sun 4:05 PM ET | ARI 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DEN at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | DEN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DAL at LAR Sun 4:25 PM ET | LAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DET at MIN Sun 8:20 PM ET | MIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NE at KC Mon 8:15 PM ET | KC 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.