Game plan · Week 6
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 49.9 points this week, give or take 66 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 51.0.
A typical week lands between -16 and 116. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -35.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 4 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NE 84% | 79% | +8.5 | New England Patriots over the Jets: Elo 76%, market 75%, System 79%. Tight agreement: go above both. Smith is worth 22 Elo; wind 2 mph, 50°F (cold helps favorites). |
| TEN at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | IND 79% | 76% | +6.4 | Indianapolis Colts over the Titans: Elo 76%, market 73%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| ARI at LAR Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | LAR 92% | 86% | +12.9 | Los Angeles Rams over the Cardinals: Elo 79%, market 86%, System 86%. Clear favorite, take the average. Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| LAC at KC Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | KC 86% | 81% | +9.3 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Chargers: Elo 81%, market 78%, System 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo; KC off a bye. |
Fade Elo 2 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | BUF 68% | 65% | +2.3 | Buffalo Bills over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 68%, System 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| DAL at GB Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | GB 52% | 52% | +0.0 | Green Bay Packers over the Cowboys: Elo 60%, market 49%, System 52%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; DAL off a bye. |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 52% | 52% | +0.0 | Chicago Bears over the Falcons: Elo 53%, market 52%, System 52%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Penix is worth 28 Elo. |
Play straight 7 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at DEN Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | SEA 56% | 55% | +0.3 | Seattle Seahawks over the Broncos: Elo 51%, market 57%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Lock is costing 30 Elo. |
| HOU at JAX Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | JAX 59% | 58% | +0.6 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Texans: Elo 64%, market 56%, System 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| NO at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYG 52% | 51% | +0.0 | New York Giants over the Saints: Elo 57%, market 50%, System 51%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Shough is costing 16 Elo. |
| BAL at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BAL 60% | 59% | +0.8 | Baltimore Ravens over the Browns: Elo 54%, market 61%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Watson is worth 34 Elo; Huntley is costing 16 Elo. |
| CAR at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 58% | 57% | +0.5 | Carolina Panthers over the Eagles: Elo 52%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. McKee is costing 29 Elo; CAR off a bye. |
| PIT at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 59% | 57% | +0.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Buccaneers: Elo 62%, market 56%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Daniels is costing 100 Elo; TB off a bye. |
| WSH at SF Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | SF 82% | 78% | +7.6 | San Francisco 49ers over the Commanders: Elo 81%, market 77%, System 78%. Clear favorite, take the average. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.