Game plan · Week 7
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 31.8 points this week, give or take 58 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 32.6.
A typical week lands between -26 and 90. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -42.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 4 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at NO Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | PIT 64% | 62% | +1.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Saints: Elo 63%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 16 Elo. |
| NYG at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | HOU 86% | 81% | +9.5 | Houston Texans over the Giants: Elo 76%, market 80%, System 81%. Clear favorite, take the average. McCarthy is costing 88 Elo. |
| GB at DET Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DET 68% | 66% | +2.4 | Detroit Lions over the Packers: Elo 61%, market 65%, System 66%. Tight agreement: go above both. DET off a bye. |
| KC at SEA Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | SEA 62% | 61% | +1.1 | Seattle Seahawks over the Chiefs: Elo 60%, market 58%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; SEA off a bye. |
Fade Elo 5 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 58% | 57% | +0.5 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Ravens: Elo 48%, market 60%, System 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Huntley is costing 16 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo; CIN off a bye. |
| IND at MIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | MIN 81% | 77% | +7.3 | Minnesota Vikings over the Colts: Elo 87%, market 74%, System 77%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo; MIN off a bye. |
| MIA at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYJ 63% | 61% | +1.2 | New York Jets over the Dolphins: Elo 50%, market 65%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo; MIA off a bye. |
| LAR at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | LAR 59% | 58% | +0.7 | Los Angeles Rams over the Raiders: Elo 48%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| DAL at PHI Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | DAL 63% | 61% | +1.2 | Dallas Cowboys over the Eagles: Elo 45%, market 66%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo; Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
Play straight 5 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at CHI Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | CHI 59% | 58% | +0.6 | Chicago Bears over the Patriots: Elo 54%, market 59%, System 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| SF at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | SF 62% | 60% | +1.0 | San Francisco 49ers over the Falcons: Elo 67%, market 58%, System 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Penix is worth 28 Elo. |
| TB at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 63% | 61% | +1.2 | Carolina Panthers over the Buccaneers: Elo 65%, market 60%, System 61%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| CLE at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CLE 57% | 56% | +0.4 | Cleveland Browns over the Titans: Elo 62%, market 55%, System 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Ward is worth 19 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo. |
| DEN at ARI Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | DEN 71% | 69% | +3.4 | Denver Broncos over the Cardinals: Elo 73%, market 67%, System 69%. Clear favorite, take the average. Brissett is costing 40 Elo; DEN off a bye. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.