Game plan · Week 18
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 58.2 points this week, give or take 58 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 58.8.
A typical week lands between 0 and 116. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -16.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 16 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at GB Sun 12:00 AM ET | GB 52% | 52% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| ATL at CAR Sun 12:00 AM ET | CAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PIT at BAL Sun 12:00 AM ET | PIT 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| JAX at IND Sun 12:00 AM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LV at KC Sun 12:00 AM ET | KC 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| TEN at HOU Sun 12:00 AM ET | HOU 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NYJ at BUF Sun 12:00 AM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CLE at CIN Sun 12:00 AM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LAC at DEN Sun 12:00 AM ET | DEN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| MIA at NE Sun 12:00 AM ET | NE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| TB at NO Sun 12:00 AM ET | TB 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CHI at MIN Sun 12:00 AM ET | MIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| SEA at LAR Sun 12:00 AM ET | LAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PHI at NYG Sun 12:00 AM ET | NYG 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| SF at ARI Sun 12:00 AM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DAL at WSH Sun 12:00 AM ET | WSH 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.