Game plan · Week 6
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Straight. Play The System's numbers as they are. Highest expected points.
This plan expects 51.0 points this week, give or take 57 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right.
A typical week lands between -6 and 108. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -22.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 4 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NE 79% | 79% | +8.7 | New England Patriots over the Jets: Elo 76%, market 75%, System 79%. Tight agreement: go above both. Smith is worth 22 Elo; wind 2 mph, 50°F (cold helps favorites). |
| TEN at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | IND 76% | 76% | +6.5 | Indianapolis Colts over the Titans: Elo 76%, market 73%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| ARI at LAR Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | LAR 86% | 86% | +13.2 | Los Angeles Rams over the Cardinals: Elo 79%, market 86%, System 86%. Clear favorite, take the average. Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| LAC at KC Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | KC 81% | 81% | +9.5 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Chargers: Elo 81%, market 78%, System 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo; KC off a bye. |
Fade Elo 2 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | BUF 65% | 65% | +2.3 | Buffalo Bills over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 68%, System 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| DAL at GB Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | GB 52% | 52% | +0.0 | Green Bay Packers over the Cowboys: Elo 60%, market 49%, System 52%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; DAL off a bye. |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 52% | 52% | +0.0 | Chicago Bears over the Falcons: Elo 53%, market 52%, System 52%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Penix is worth 28 Elo. |
Play straight 7 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA at DEN Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | SEA 55% | 55% | +0.3 | Seattle Seahawks over the Broncos: Elo 51%, market 57%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Lock is costing 30 Elo. |
| HOU at JAX Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | JAX 58% | 58% | +0.6 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Texans: Elo 64%, market 56%, System 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| NO at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYG 51% | 51% | +0.0 | New York Giants over the Saints: Elo 57%, market 50%, System 51%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Shough is costing 16 Elo. |
| BAL at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BAL 59% | 59% | +0.8 | Baltimore Ravens over the Browns: Elo 54%, market 61%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Watson is worth 34 Elo; Huntley is costing 16 Elo. |
| CAR at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 57% | 57% | +0.5 | Carolina Panthers over the Eagles: Elo 52%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. McKee is costing 29 Elo; CAR off a bye. |
| PIT at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 57% | 57% | +0.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Buccaneers: Elo 62%, market 56%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Daniels is costing 100 Elo; TB off a bye. |
| WSH at SF Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | SF 78% | 78% | +7.7 | San Francisco 49ers over the Commanders: Elo 81%, market 77%, System 78%. Clear favorite, take the average. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.