Game plan · Week 7
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Straight. Play The System's numbers as they are. Highest expected points.
This plan expects 32.6 points this week, give or take 50 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right.
A typical week lands between -18 and 83. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -32.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 4 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at NO Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | PIT 62% | 62% | +1.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Saints: Elo 63%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 16 Elo. |
| NYG at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | HOU 81% | 81% | +9.7 | Houston Texans over the Giants: Elo 76%, market 80%, System 81%. Clear favorite, take the average. McCarthy is costing 88 Elo. |
| GB at DET Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DET 66% | 66% | +2.5 | Detroit Lions over the Packers: Elo 61%, market 65%, System 66%. Tight agreement: go above both. DET off a bye. |
| KC at SEA Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | SEA 61% | 61% | +1.2 | Seattle Seahawks over the Chiefs: Elo 60%, market 58%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; SEA off a bye. |
Fade Elo 5 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 57% | 57% | +0.5 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Ravens: Elo 48%, market 60%, System 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Huntley is costing 16 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo; CIN off a bye. |
| IND at MIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | MIN 77% | 77% | +7.4 | Minnesota Vikings over the Colts: Elo 87%, market 74%, System 77%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo; MIN off a bye. |
| MIA at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYJ 61% | 61% | +1.2 | New York Jets over the Dolphins: Elo 50%, market 65%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo; MIA off a bye. |
| LAR at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | LAR 58% | 58% | +0.7 | Los Angeles Rams over the Raiders: Elo 48%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| DAL at PHI Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | DAL 61% | 61% | +1.2 | Dallas Cowboys over the Eagles: Elo 45%, market 66%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo; Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
Play straight 5 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at CHI Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | CHI 58% | 58% | +0.6 | Chicago Bears over the Patriots: Elo 54%, market 59%, System 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| SF at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | SF 60% | 60% | +1.0 | San Francisco 49ers over the Falcons: Elo 67%, market 58%, System 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Penix is worth 28 Elo. |
| TB at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 61% | 61% | +1.2 | Carolina Panthers over the Buccaneers: Elo 65%, market 60%, System 61%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| CLE at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CLE 56% | 56% | +0.4 | Cleveland Browns over the Titans: Elo 62%, market 55%, System 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Ward is worth 19 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo. |
| DEN at ARI Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | DEN 69% | 69% | +3.4 | Denver Broncos over the Cardinals: Elo 73%, market 67%, System 69%. Clear favorite, take the average. Brissett is costing 40 Elo; DEN off a bye. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.