Game plan · Week 8
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 52.5 points this week, give or take 70 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 53.7.
A typical week lands between -17 and 122. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -37.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 7 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at GB Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | GB 68% | 66% | +2.5 | Green Bay Packers over the Panthers: Elo 64%, market 64%, System 66%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
| CLE at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 69% | 67% | +2.7 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Browns: Elo 64%, market 65%, System 67%. Tight agreement: go above both. Watson is worth 34 Elo. |
| TEN at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | CIN 94% | 88% | +14.5 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Titans: Elo 83%, market 88%, System 88%. Clear favorite, take the average. Burrow is worth 17 Elo; Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| IND at JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | JAX 84% | 79% | +8.3 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Colts: Elo 78%, market 81%, System 79%. Tight agreement: go above both. JAX off a bye; wind 12 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LAC at LAR Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | LAR 78% | 74% | +5.8 | Los Angeles Rams over the Chargers: Elo 71%, market 73%, System 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; LAC off a bye. |
| PHI at WSH Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | WSH 74% | 70% | +4.1 | Washington Commanders over the Eagles: Elo 66%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 17 Elo; WSH off a bye. |
| CHI at SEA Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | SEA 67% | 65% | +2.2 | Seattle Seahawks over the Bears: Elo 59%, market 62%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. CHI off a bye; wind 2 mph, 46°F (cold helps favorites). |
Fade Elo 3 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | DET 56% | 55% | +0.3 | Detroit Lions over the Vikings: Elo 34%, market 62%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo. |
| BAL at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 67% | 65% | +2.1 | Buffalo Bills over the Ravens: Elo 75%, market 61%, System 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. BUF off a bye. |
| NE at MIA Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | NE 73% | 70% | +4.0 | New England Patriots over the Dolphins: Elo 63%, market 76%, System 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; NE off a bye; wind 5 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYJ 54% | 53% | +0.1 | New York Jets over the Raiders: Elo 50%, market 54%, System 53%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
Play straight 3 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI at DAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | DAL 78% | 74% | +5.7 | Dallas Cowboys over the Cardinals: Elo 70%, market 75%, System 74%. Clear favorite, take the average. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| ATL at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | TB 55% | 54% | +0.2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Falcons: Elo 55%, market 54%, System 54%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Penix is worth 28 Elo; wind 6 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| KC at DEN Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DEN 52% | 52% | +0.0 | Denver Broncos over the Chiefs: Elo 57%, market 50%, System 52%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.