Game plan · Week 8
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 53.1 points this week, give or take 55 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 53.7.
A typical week lands between -2 and 108. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -17.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 7 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at GB Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | GB 64% | 66% | +2.5 | Green Bay Packers over the Panthers: Elo 64%, market 64%, System 66%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
| CLE at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 65% | 67% | +2.7 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Browns: Elo 64%, market 65%, System 67%. Tight agreement: go above both. Watson is worth 34 Elo. |
| TEN at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | CIN 85% | 88% | +14.7 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Titans: Elo 83%, market 88%, System 88%. Clear favorite, take the average. Burrow is worth 17 Elo; Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| IND at JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | JAX 76% | 79% | +8.4 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Colts: Elo 78%, market 81%, System 79%. Tight agreement: go above both. JAX off a bye; wind 12 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LAC at LAR Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | LAR 72% | 74% | +5.9 | Los Angeles Rams over the Chargers: Elo 71%, market 73%, System 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; LAC off a bye. |
| PHI at WSH Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | WSH 68% | 70% | +4.2 | Washington Commanders over the Eagles: Elo 66%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 17 Elo; WSH off a bye. |
| CHI at SEA Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | SEA 64% | 65% | +2.2 | Seattle Seahawks over the Bears: Elo 59%, market 62%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. CHI off a bye; wind 2 mph, 46°F (cold helps favorites). |
Fade Elo 3 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | DET 55% | 55% | +0.3 | Detroit Lions over the Vikings: Elo 34%, market 62%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo. |
| BAL at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 63% | 65% | +2.1 | Buffalo Bills over the Ravens: Elo 75%, market 61%, System 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. BUF off a bye. |
| NE at MIA Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | NE 68% | 70% | +4.1 | New England Patriots over the Dolphins: Elo 63%, market 76%, System 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; NE off a bye; wind 5 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYJ 53% | 53% | +0.1 | New York Jets over the Raiders: Elo 50%, market 54%, System 53%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
Play straight 3 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI at DAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | DAL 72% | 74% | +5.7 | Dallas Cowboys over the Cardinals: Elo 70%, market 75%, System 74%. Clear favorite, take the average. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| ATL at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | TB 54% | 54% | +0.2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Falcons: Elo 55%, market 54%, System 54%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Penix is worth 28 Elo; wind 6 mph, 79°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| KC at DEN Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DEN 51% | 52% | +0.0 | Denver Broncos over the Chiefs: Elo 57%, market 50%, System 52%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.