Game plan · Week 16
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Straight. Play The System's numbers as they are. Highest expected points.
This plan expects 49.1 points this week, give or take 61 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right.
A typical week lands between -12 and 110. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -29.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 16 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at PHI Thu 8:15 PM ET | HOU 61% | 61% | +1.2 | No market line yet. |
| GB at CHI Fri 1:00 PM ET | CHI 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| BUF at DEN Fri 4:30 PM ET | DEN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LAR at SEA Fri 8:15 PM ET | SEA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CIN at IND Sun 12:00 AM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CAR at PIT Sun 12:00 AM ET | PIT 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| WSH at MIN Sun 12:00 AM ET | MIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| TB at ATL Sun 12:00 AM ET | ATL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NE at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET | NE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CLE at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | BAL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LAC at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET | MIA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| ARI at NO Sun 1:00 PM ET | NO 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| TEN at LV Sun 4:05 PM ET | LV 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| SF at KC Sun 4:25 PM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| JAX at DAL Sun 8:20 PM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NYG at DET Mon 8:15 PM ET | DET 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.