The System · Week 6
Ten rules, each with the number that earned it. Tested on 27 seasons, 1999–2025, 6,918 decided games: the 24 FiveThirtyEight published and every season Delta Sunday has replayed itself, refreshed as each week finishes. Per season over the 27: The System 1,011 points, the blend 1,003, the market alone 997, Elo 892. Against Elo that is 119 a season with a standard error of 19, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons: a real gap. Against the market it is 14 a season with a standard error of 10, ahead in 16 of 27: even, within the noise. And the rules were chosen on these same seasons, so treat the edge over the market as flattering; the seasons the site replayed itself went −16, +90 and +32.
- Start from the market. Over 27 seasons (1999–2025) the closing line scored 997 points a season; Elo scored 892.
- Add Elo at a quarter weight. A hair better than the market alone and it explains itself: quarterback changes, rest, the reasoning on every card. Half weight costs 17 a season.
- Nudge tight agreement by 2. Same favorite of 55% or more, within 4 points. Favorites there won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast over 2,607 games. Small, but consistent across eras.
- Don't chase Elo's disagreements. Ten or more points apart, Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%, over 1,102 games. The quarter weight already handles it.
- Don't cap your confidence. Every cap tested cost points, in the long run and in the recent replays.
- Play coin flips at the number, not 50. Forcing 50 cost points.
- Playoffs: same blend. Elo and the market are level in January over 248 games. A heavier Elo weighting looked good on 39 recent games and did not hold.
- The lock gets the same 2-point nudge, no more. Locks won 85% (434-76) against a 79% forecast over 27 seasons. Pressing them by 5 cost points over 510 locks.
- Never skip a game. A skip is a 50/50 pick worth zero. Every System number expects positive points.
- Mind the weather, outdoors. Wind of 15 mph or more: favorites won 62% against a 65% forecast, so shrink toward 50 by a fifth. Fifty degrees or colder: favorites won 69% against 66%, so add 2. Over 75: shrink by a tenth. Together about 9 points a season over 24, positive in every era. Domes get nothing.
Every rule we tried beyond these cost points. The discipline is to play the numbers, and move one only when you know something the models don't: a late scratch, weather, a benching. The System is scored on every leaderboard next to the plain blend, so you can see whether the last two rules earn their keep this season.
| Game | The System | Why |
|---|---|---|
| SEA at DEN Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | SEA 55% featured this week | Seattle Seahawks over the Broncos: Elo 51%, market 57%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Lock is costing 30 Elo. |
| HOU at JAX Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | JAX 58% featured this week | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Texans: Elo 64%, market 56%, System 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| CHI at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 52% featured this week | Chicago Bears over the Falcons: Elo 53%, market 52%, System 52%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Penix is worth 28 Elo. |
| NYJ at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NE 79% featured this week | New England Patriots over the Jets: Elo 76%, market 75%, System 79%. Tight agreement: go above both. Smith is worth 22 Elo; wind 2 mph, 50°F (cold helps favorites). |
| NO at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYG 51% featured this week | New York Giants over the Saints: Elo 57%, market 50%, System 51%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Shough is costing 16 Elo. |
| BAL at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BAL 59% featured this week | Baltimore Ravens over the Browns: Elo 54%, market 61%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Watson is worth 34 Elo; Huntley is costing 16 Elo. |
| CAR at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 57% featured this week | Carolina Panthers over the Eagles: Elo 52%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. McKee is costing 29 Elo; CAR off a bye. |
| PIT at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 57% featured this week | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Buccaneers: Elo 62%, market 56%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Daniels is costing 100 Elo; TB off a bye. |
| TEN at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | IND 76% featured this week | Indianapolis Colts over the Titans: Elo 76%, market 73%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| ARI at LAR Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | LAR 86% featured this week | Los Angeles Rams over the Cardinals: Elo 79%, market 86%, System 86%. Clear favorite, take the average. Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| LAC at KC Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | KC 81% featured this week | Kansas City Chiefs over the Chargers: Elo 81%, market 78%, System 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo; KC off a bye. |
| BUF at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | BUF 65% featured this week | Buffalo Bills over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 68%, System 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| DAL at GB Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | GB 52% featured this week | Green Bay Packers over the Cowboys: Elo 60%, market 49%, System 52%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; DAL off a bye. |
| WSH at SF Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | SF 78% featured this week | San Francisco 49ers over the Commanders: Elo 81%, market 77%, System 78%. Clear favorite, take the average. |
If The System's numbers are right, it expects about 51.0 points this week.