The System · Week 4
Ten rules, each with the number that earned it. Tested on 27 seasons, 1999–2025, 6,918 decided games: the 24 FiveThirtyEight published and every season Delta Sunday has replayed itself, refreshed as each week finishes. Per season over the 27: The System 1,011 points, the blend 1,003, the market alone 997, Elo 892. Against Elo that is 119 a season with a standard error of 19, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons: a real gap. Against the market it is 14 a season with a standard error of 10, ahead in 16 of 27: even, within the noise. And the rules were chosen on these same seasons, so treat the edge over the market as flattering; the seasons the site replayed itself went −16, +90 and +32.
- Start from the market. Over 27 seasons (1999–2025) the closing line scored 997 points a season; Elo scored 892.
- Add Elo at a quarter weight. A hair better than the market alone and it explains itself: quarterback changes, rest, the reasoning on every card. Half weight costs 17 a season.
- Nudge tight agreement by 2. Same favorite of 55% or more, within 4 points. Favorites there won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast over 2,607 games. Small, but consistent across eras.
- Don't chase Elo's disagreements. Ten or more points apart, Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%, over 1,102 games. The quarter weight already handles it.
- Don't cap your confidence. Every cap tested cost points, in the long run and in the recent replays.
- Play coin flips at the number, not 50. Forcing 50 cost points.
- Playoffs: same blend. Elo and the market are level in January over 248 games. A heavier Elo weighting looked good on 39 recent games and did not hold.
- The lock gets the same 2-point nudge, no more. Locks won 85% (434-76) against a 79% forecast over 27 seasons. Pressing them by 5 cost points over 510 locks.
- Never skip a game. A skip is a 50/50 pick worth zero. Every System number expects positive points.
- Mind the weather, outdoors. Wind of 15 mph or more: favorites won 62% against a 65% forecast, so shrink toward 50 by a fifth. Fifty degrees or colder: favorites won 69% against 66%, so add 2. Over 75: shrink by a tenth. Together about 9 points a season over 24, positive in every era. Domes get nothing.
Every rule we tried beyond these cost points. The discipline is to play the numbers, and move one only when you know something the models don't: a late scratch, weather, a benching. The System is scored on every leaderboard next to the plain blend, so you can see whether the last two rules earn their keep this season.
| Game | The System | Why |
|---|---|---|
| PIT at CLE Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | PIT 55% featured this week | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Browns: Elo 48%, market 58%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 9 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| IND at WSH Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | IND 68% featured this week | Indianapolis Colts over the Commanders: Elo 64%, market 66%, System 68%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
| NYJ at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 65% featured this week | Chicago Bears over the Jets: Elo 62%, market 63%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. Keenum is costing 100 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo. |
| ARI at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | ARI 53% featured this week | Arizona Cardinals over the Giants: Elo 46%, market 56%, System 53%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| LAR at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | LAR 59% featured this week | Los Angeles Rams over the Eagles: Elo 46%, market 63%, System 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo. |
| GB at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | GB 60% featured this week | Green Bay Packers over the Buccaneers: Elo 66%, market 59%, System 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Daniels is costing 100 Elo; GB off a bye; wind 4 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| TEN at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BAL 86% featured this week | Baltimore Ravens over the Titans: Elo 80%, market 85%, System 86%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| DAL at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 61% featured this week | Houston Texans over the Cowboys: Elo 61%, market 58%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| NE at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 71% featured this week | Buffalo Bills over the Patriots: Elo 65%, market 74%, System 71%. Clear favorite, take the average. |
| JAX at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 55% featured this week | Cincinnati Bengals over the Jaguars: Elo 51%, market 56%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
| MIA at MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | MIN 84% featured this week | Minnesota Vikings over the Dolphins: Elo 81%, market 82%, System 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Murray is worth 100 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo. |
| LAC at SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SEA 78% featured this week | Seattle Seahawks over the Chargers: Elo 79%, market 75%, System 78%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 30 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo. |
| KC at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | KC 63% featured this week | Kansas City Chiefs over the Raiders: Elo 51%, market 67%, System 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo. |
| DEN at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SF 60% featured this week | San Francisco 49ers over the Broncos: Elo 61%, market 59%, System 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. wind 4 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| DET at CAR Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | DET 62% featured this week | Detroit Lions over the Panthers: Elo 52%, market 66%, System 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. |
| ATL at NO Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | NO 51% featured this week | New Orleans Saints over the Falcons: Elo 50%, market 52%, System 51%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Penix is worth 28 Elo; ATL off a bye. |
If The System's numbers are right, it expects about 49.9 points this week.