The System · Week 2
Ten rules, each with the number that earned it. Tested on 27 seasons, 1999–2025, 6,918 decided games: the 24 FiveThirtyEight published and every season Delta Sunday has replayed itself, refreshed as each week finishes. Per season over the 27: The System 1,011 points, the blend 1,003, the market alone 997, Elo 892. Against Elo that is 119 a season with a standard error of 19, ahead in 24 of 27 seasons: a real gap. Against the market it is 14 a season with a standard error of 10, ahead in 16 of 27: even, within the noise. And the rules were chosen on these same seasons, so treat the edge over the market as flattering; the seasons the site replayed itself went −16, +90 and +32.
- Start from the market. Over 27 seasons (1999–2025) the closing line scored 997 points a season; Elo scored 892.
- Add Elo at a quarter weight. A hair better than the market alone and it explains itself: quarterback changes, rest, the reasoning on every card. Half weight costs 17 a season.
- Nudge tight agreement by 2. Same favorite of 55% or more, within 4 points. Favorites there won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast over 2,607 games. Small, but consistent across eras.
- Don't chase Elo's disagreements. Ten or more points apart, Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%, over 1,102 games. The quarter weight already handles it.
- Don't cap your confidence. Every cap tested cost points, in the long run and in the recent replays.
- Play coin flips at the number, not 50. Forcing 50 cost points.
- Playoffs: same blend. Elo and the market are level in January over 248 games. A heavier Elo weighting looked good on 39 recent games and did not hold.
- The lock gets the same 2-point nudge, no more. Locks won 85% (434-76) against a 79% forecast over 27 seasons. Pressing them by 5 cost points over 510 locks.
- Never skip a game. A skip is a 50/50 pick worth zero. Every System number expects positive points.
- Mind the weather, outdoors. Wind of 15 mph or more: favorites won 62% against a 65% forecast, so shrink toward 50 by a fifth. Fifty degrees or colder: favorites won 69% against 66%, so add 2. Over 75: shrink by a tenth. Together about 9 points a season over 24, positive in every era. Domes get nothing.
Every rule we tried beyond these cost points. The discipline is to play the numbers, and move one only when you know something the models don't: a late scratch, weather, a benching. The System is scored on every leaderboard next to the plain blend, so you can see whether the last two rules earn their keep this season.
| Game | The System | Why |
|---|---|---|
| DET at BUF Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | BUF 67% featured this week | Buffalo Bills over the Lions: Elo 64%, market 66%, System 67%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
| CAR at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 51% featured this week | Carolina Panthers over the Falcons: Elo 37%, market 56%, System 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Tagovailoa is worth 16 Elo. |
| CIN at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 59% featured this week | Houston Texans over the Bengals: Elo 62%, market 58%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
| NO at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BAL 76% featured this week | Baltimore Ravens over the Saints: Elo 72%, market 78%, System 76%. Clear favorite, take the average. Shough is costing 16 Elo; wind 11 mph, 80°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| MIN at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 62% featured this week | Chicago Bears over the Vikings: Elo 51%, market 66%, System 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo. |
| PHI at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PHI 70% featured this week | Philadelphia Eagles over the Titans: Elo 67%, market 75%, System 70%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo; wind 3 mph, 96°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| PIT at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NE 69% featured this week | New England Patriots over the Steelers: Elo 66%, market 67%, System 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. NE off a bye. |
| GB at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | GB 58% featured this week | Green Bay Packers over the Jets: Elo 48%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo. |
| CLE at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | TB 71% featured this week | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Browns: Elo 58%, market 78%, System 71%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LV at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | LAC 69% featured this week | Los Angeles Chargers over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 73%, System 69%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| JAX at DEN Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | DEN 55% featured this week | Denver Broncos over the Jaguars: Elo 53%, market 57%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 6 mph, 76°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| WSH at DAL Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DAL 63% featured this week | Dallas Cowboys over the Commanders: Elo 55%, market 65%, System 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| SEA at ARI Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SEA 68% featured this week | Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 68%, market 65%, System 68%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo; Lock is costing 30 Elo; SEA off a bye. |
| MIA at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SF 83% featured this week | San Francisco 49ers over the Dolphins: Elo 67%, market 88%, System 83%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; SF off a bye. |
| IND at KC Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | KC 73% featured this week | Kansas City Chiefs over the Colts: Elo 70%, market 71%, System 73%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo. |
| NYG at LAR Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | LAR 74% featured this week | Los Angeles Rams over the Giants: Elo 70%, market 72%, System 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. LAR off a bye. |
If The System's numbers are right, it expects about 55.1 points this week.