Game plan · Week 2
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 53.9 points this week, give or take 75 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 55.1.
A typical week lands between -21 and 129. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -42.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 6 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at BUF Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | BUF 70% | 67% | +2.9 | Buffalo Bills over the Lions: Elo 64%, market 66%, System 67%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
| NO at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | BAL 80% | 76% | +6.5 | Baltimore Ravens over the Saints: Elo 72%, market 78%, System 76%. Clear favorite, take the average. Shough is costing 16 Elo; wind 11 mph, 80°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| PIT at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NE 72% | 69% | +3.6 | New England Patriots over the Steelers: Elo 66%, market 67%, System 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. NE off a bye. |
| SEA at ARI Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SEA 71% | 68% | +3.2 | Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 68%, market 65%, System 68%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo; Lock is costing 30 Elo; SEA off a bye. |
| IND at KC Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | KC 76% | 73% | +5.2 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Colts: Elo 70%, market 71%, System 73%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo. |
| NYG at LAR Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | LAR 77% | 74% | +5.5 | Los Angeles Rams over the Giants: Elo 70%, market 72%, System 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. LAR off a bye. |
Fade Elo 7 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 51% | 51% | +0.0 | Carolina Panthers over the Falcons: Elo 37%, market 56%, System 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Tagovailoa is worth 16 Elo. |
| MIN at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 64% | 62% | +1.4 | Chicago Bears over the Vikings: Elo 51%, market 66%, System 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo. |
| GB at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | GB 59% | 58% | +0.6 | Green Bay Packers over the Jets: Elo 48%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo. |
| CLE at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | TB 74% | 71% | +4.2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Browns: Elo 58%, market 78%, System 71%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LV at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | LAC 72% | 69% | +3.7 | Los Angeles Chargers over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 73%, System 69%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| WSH at DAL Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DAL 64% | 63% | +1.6 | Dallas Cowboys over the Commanders: Elo 55%, market 65%, System 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| MIA at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SF 88% | 83% | +10.6 | San Francisco 49ers over the Dolphins: Elo 67%, market 88%, System 83%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; SF off a bye. |
Play straight 3 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 60% | 59% | +0.7 | Houston Texans over the Bengals: Elo 62%, market 58%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
| PHI at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PHI 73% | 70% | +4.1 | Philadelphia Eagles over the Titans: Elo 67%, market 75%, System 70%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo; wind 3 mph, 96°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| JAX at DEN Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | DEN 56% | 55% | +0.3 | Denver Broncos over the Jaguars: Elo 53%, market 57%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 6 mph, 76°F (heat hurts favorites). |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.