Game plan · Week 2
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 54.6 points this week, give or take 59 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 55.1.
A typical week lands between -4 and 113. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -21.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 6 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at BUF Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | BUF 66% | 67% | +3.0 | Buffalo Bills over the Lions: Elo 64%, market 66%, System 67%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
| NO at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | BAL 73% | 76% | +6.6 | Baltimore Ravens over the Saints: Elo 72%, market 78%, System 76%. Clear favorite, take the average. Shough is costing 16 Elo; wind 11 mph, 80°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| PIT at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NE 67% | 69% | +3.6 | New England Patriots over the Steelers: Elo 66%, market 67%, System 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. NE off a bye. |
| SEA at ARI Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SEA 66% | 68% | +3.2 | Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 68%, market 65%, System 68%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo; Lock is costing 30 Elo; SEA off a bye. |
| IND at KC Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | KC 71% | 73% | +5.2 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Colts: Elo 70%, market 71%, System 73%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo. |
| NYG at LAR Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | LAR 71% | 74% | +5.5 | Los Angeles Rams over the Giants: Elo 70%, market 72%, System 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. LAR off a bye. |
Fade Elo 7 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 51% | 51% | +0.0 | Carolina Panthers over the Falcons: Elo 37%, market 56%, System 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Tagovailoa is worth 16 Elo. |
| MIN at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 61% | 62% | +1.4 | Chicago Bears over the Vikings: Elo 51%, market 66%, System 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo. |
| GB at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | GB 57% | 58% | +0.6 | Green Bay Packers over the Jets: Elo 48%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo. |
| CLE at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | TB 69% | 71% | +4.2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Browns: Elo 58%, market 78%, System 71%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LV at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | LAC 67% | 69% | +3.7 | Los Angeles Chargers over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 73%, System 69%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| WSH at DAL Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DAL 61% | 63% | +1.6 | Dallas Cowboys over the Commanders: Elo 55%, market 65%, System 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| MIA at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SF 80% | 83% | +10.8 | San Francisco 49ers over the Dolphins: Elo 67%, market 88%, System 83%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; SF off a bye. |
Play straight 3 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 58% | 59% | +0.7 | Houston Texans over the Bengals: Elo 62%, market 58%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
| PHI at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PHI 68% | 70% | +4.1 | Philadelphia Eagles over the Titans: Elo 67%, market 75%, System 70%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo; wind 3 mph, 96°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| JAX at DEN Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | DEN 55% | 55% | +0.3 | Denver Broncos over the Jaguars: Elo 53%, market 57%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 6 mph, 76°F (heat hurts favorites). |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.