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Delta Sunday
The gap between the models is where the points are.
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Scores and schedule from ESPN. Rest, lines and box scores from nflverse. Ratings seeded from FiveThirtyEight's final Elo and their history to 1920. Markets from The Odds API, Kalshi and Polymarket. Scoring follows FiveThirtyEight's forecasting game.
Data refreshed Fri 6:24 AM. Refreshes itself on visits: every 3 minutes on game days, otherwise every 30. How it works · FAQ · Data

Beat the models, one Sunday at a time.

Delta Sunday is a free NFL forecasting game. Every week you set how sure you are about each game with a slider. Right and confident earns up to 25 points; wrong and confident costs up to 75. You play against everyone else and against three forecasters: Elo, the ratings FiveThirtyEight made famous; the market, what the sportsbooks and prediction markets say; and the blend, our own, backtested on 24 seasons.

  1. Sign in. Email and password, or a link we send you. Free.
  2. Set a number for every game. The System will suggest one; adjust only where you know something the models don't.
  3. Watch the board. Picks lock at kickoff, points land as games end, and the leaderboard shows whether you beat the market this week.
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Super Bowl

Set how sure you are for every game. Right at 100% earns 25 points, wrong at 100% costs 75, 50% scores nothing. Picks lock at kickoff. Elo is the model you're trying to beat. The spread, sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket are shown for reference, and they compete on the leaderboard too. Our lock and bold call of the week are on the Predictions page. Sign in to play.

123456789101112131415161718Wild CardDivisionalConf. Champ.Super Bowl
Sunday, Feb 14
TBDTBD
Elo: TBD 50%
TBD 50%
Elo
TBDTBD
Neutral site11:30 PM
EloMarketSpreadYou· each arc sweeps toward the team it favors
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Elo 50%
no pick yet
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Elo 50%
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