Game plan · Week 4
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 48.8 points this week, give or take 67 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 49.9.
A typical week lands between -18 and 115. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -37.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 7 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND at WSH Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | IND 70% | 68% | +3.0 | Indianapolis Colts over the Commanders: Elo 64%, market 66%, System 68%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
| NYJ at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 67% | 65% | +2.1 | Chicago Bears over the Jets: Elo 62%, market 63%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. Keenum is costing 100 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo. |
| TEN at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | BAL 91% | 86% | +12.6 | Baltimore Ravens over the Titans: Elo 80%, market 85%, System 86%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| DAL at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 62% | 61% | +1.1 | Houston Texans over the Cowboys: Elo 61%, market 58%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| MIA at MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | MIN 89% | 84% | +11.2 | Minnesota Vikings over the Dolphins: Elo 81%, market 82%, System 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Murray is worth 100 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo. |
| LAC at SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SEA 82% | 78% | +7.7 | Seattle Seahawks over the Chargers: Elo 79%, market 75%, System 78%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 30 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo. |
| DEN at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SF 62% | 60% | +1.0 | San Francisco 49ers over the Broncos: Elo 61%, market 59%, System 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. wind 4 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). |
Fade Elo 4 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at CLE Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | PIT 56% | 55% | +0.3 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Browns: Elo 48%, market 58%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 9 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LAR at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | LAR 60% | 59% | +0.8 | Los Angeles Rams over the Eagles: Elo 46%, market 63%, System 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo. |
| KC at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | KC 65% | 63% | +1.7 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Raiders: Elo 51%, market 67%, System 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo. |
| DET at CAR Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | DET 64% | 62% | +1.4 | Detroit Lions over the Panthers: Elo 52%, market 66%, System 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at NO Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | NO 52% | 51% | +0.0 | New Orleans Saints over the Falcons: Elo 50%, market 52%, System 51%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Penix is worth 28 Elo; ATL off a bye. |
Play straight 4 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | ARI 54% | 53% | +0.1 | Arizona Cardinals over the Giants: Elo 46%, market 56%, System 53%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| GB at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | GB 61% | 60% | +0.9 | Green Bay Packers over the Buccaneers: Elo 66%, market 59%, System 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Daniels is costing 100 Elo; GB off a bye; wind 4 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| NE at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 75% | 71% | +4.5 | Buffalo Bills over the Patriots: Elo 65%, market 74%, System 71%. Clear favorite, take the average. |
| JAX at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 56% | 55% | +0.2 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Jaguars: Elo 51%, market 56%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.