Game plan · Week 5
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 37.3 points this week, give or take 63 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 38.1.
A typical week lands between -25 and 100. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -43.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 5 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | DAL 89% | 84% | +11.2 | Dallas Cowboys over the Buccaneers: Elo 78%, market 80%, System 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; Daniels is costing 100 Elo. |
| NYG at WSH Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | WSH 66% | 64% | +1.9 | Washington Commanders over the Giants: Elo 60%, market 63%, System 64%. Tight agreement: go above both. Winston is costing 71 Elo. |
| IND at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 61% | 59% | +0.8 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Colts: Elo 61%, market 59%, System 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. PIT off a bye; wind 19 mph (matters), 65°F. |
| LV at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NE 67% | 64% | +2.0 | New England Patriots over the Raiders: Elo 63%, market 62%, System 64%. Tight agreement: go above both. Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| SF at SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SEA 64% | 62% | +1.4 | Seattle Seahawks over the 49ers: Elo 59%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 30 Elo. |
Fade Elo 5 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at JAX Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | JAX 77% | 73% | +5.3 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Eagles: Elo 63%, market 77%, System 73%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo. |
| HOU at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 75% | 71% | +4.5 | Houston Texans over the Titans: Elo 63%, market 74%, System 71%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| CIN at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 70% | 67% | +2.9 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Dolphins: Elo 50%, market 76%, System 67%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo; wind 11 mph, 90°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| MIN at NO Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | MIN 63% | 61% | +1.2 | Minnesota Vikings over the Saints: Elo 77%, market 56%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Murray is worth 100 Elo. |
| CLE at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYJ 53% | 53% | +0.1 | New York Jets over the Browns: Elo 42%, market 56%, System 53%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; CLE off a bye. |
Play straight 5 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at GB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 50% | 50% | +0.0 | Chicago Bears over the Packers: Elo 45%, market 52%, System 50%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Bagent is costing 100 Elo. |
| DEN at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | DEN 64% | 62% | +1.4 | Denver Broncos over the Chargers: Elo 59%, market 63%, System 62%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Herbert is worth 18 Elo. |
| DET at ARI Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DET 69% | 67% | +2.7 | Detroit Lions over the Cardinals: Elo 59%, market 69%, System 67%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| BAL at ATL Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | ATL 62% | 60% | +1.1 | Atlanta Falcons over the Ravens: Elo 56%, market 62%, System 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Penix is worth 28 Elo; Huntley is costing 16 Elo. |
| BUF at LAR Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | LAR 61% | 59% | +0.9 | Los Angeles Rams over the Bills: Elo 53%, market 62%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.