Game plan · Week 4
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 49.4 points this week, give or take 52 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 49.9.
A typical week lands between -3 and 102. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -17.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 7 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND at WSH Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | IND 66% | 68% | +3.1 | Indianapolis Colts over the Commanders: Elo 64%, market 66%, System 68%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
| NYJ at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 63% | 65% | +2.1 | Chicago Bears over the Jets: Elo 62%, market 63%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. Keenum is costing 100 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo. |
| TEN at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | BAL 82% | 86% | +12.8 | Baltimore Ravens over the Titans: Elo 80%, market 85%, System 86%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| DAL at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 60% | 61% | +1.1 | Houston Texans over the Cowboys: Elo 61%, market 58%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| MIA at MIN Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | MIN 80% | 84% | +11.4 | Minnesota Vikings over the Dolphins: Elo 81%, market 82%, System 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Murray is worth 100 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo. |
| LAC at SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SEA 75% | 78% | +7.8 | Seattle Seahawks over the Chargers: Elo 79%, market 75%, System 78%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 30 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo. |
| DEN at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SF 59% | 60% | +1.0 | San Francisco 49ers over the Broncos: Elo 61%, market 59%, System 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. wind 4 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). |
Fade Elo 4 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at CLE Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | PIT 55% | 55% | +0.3 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Browns: Elo 48%, market 58%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 9 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LAR at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | LAR 58% | 59% | +0.8 | Los Angeles Rams over the Eagles: Elo 46%, market 63%, System 59%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo. |
| KC at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | KC 62% | 63% | +1.8 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Raiders: Elo 51%, market 67%, System 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo. |
| DET at CAR Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | DET 61% | 62% | +1.5 | Detroit Lions over the Panthers: Elo 52%, market 66%, System 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at NO Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | NO 51% | 51% | +0.0 | New Orleans Saints over the Falcons: Elo 50%, market 52%, System 51%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Penix is worth 28 Elo; ATL off a bye. |
Play straight 4 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | ARI 53% | 53% | +0.1 | Arizona Cardinals over the Giants: Elo 46%, market 56%, System 53%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| GB at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | GB 59% | 60% | +0.9 | Green Bay Packers over the Buccaneers: Elo 66%, market 59%, System 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Daniels is costing 100 Elo; GB off a bye; wind 4 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| NE at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 69% | 71% | +4.5 | Buffalo Bills over the Patriots: Elo 65%, market 74%, System 71%. Clear favorite, take the average. |
| JAX at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 54% | 55% | +0.2 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Jaguars: Elo 51%, market 56%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.