Game plan · Week 5
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 37.8 points this week, give or take 49 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 38.1.
A typical week lands between -11 and 87. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -25.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 5 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB at DAL Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | DAL 80% | 84% | +11.3 | Dallas Cowboys over the Buccaneers: Elo 78%, market 80%, System 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; Daniels is costing 100 Elo. |
| NYG at WSH Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | WSH 62% | 64% | +1.9 | Washington Commanders over the Giants: Elo 60%, market 63%, System 64%. Tight agreement: go above both. Winston is costing 71 Elo. |
| IND at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 58% | 59% | +0.9 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Colts: Elo 61%, market 59%, System 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. PIT off a bye; wind 19 mph (matters), 65°F. |
| LV at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NE 63% | 64% | +2.1 | New England Patriots over the Raiders: Elo 63%, market 62%, System 64%. Tight agreement: go above both. Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| SF at SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | SEA 61% | 62% | +1.4 | Seattle Seahawks over the 49ers: Elo 59%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 30 Elo. |
Fade Elo 5 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at JAX Sun 9:30 AM ET · locked | JAX 71% | 73% | +5.4 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Eagles: Elo 63%, market 77%, System 73%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo. |
| HOU at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 69% | 71% | +4.5 | Houston Texans over the Titans: Elo 63%, market 74%, System 71%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| CIN at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 65% | 67% | +2.9 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Dolphins: Elo 50%, market 76%, System 67%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo; wind 11 mph, 90°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| MIN at NO Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | MIN 60% | 61% | +1.2 | Minnesota Vikings over the Saints: Elo 77%, market 56%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Murray is worth 100 Elo. |
| CLE at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYJ 52% | 53% | +0.1 | New York Jets over the Browns: Elo 42%, market 56%, System 53%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; CLE off a bye. |
Play straight 5 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI at GB Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 50% | 50% | +0.0 | Chicago Bears over the Packers: Elo 45%, market 52%, System 50%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Bagent is costing 100 Elo. |
| DEN at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | DEN 61% | 62% | +1.4 | Denver Broncos over the Chargers: Elo 59%, market 63%, System 62%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Herbert is worth 18 Elo. |
| DET at ARI Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | DET 65% | 67% | +2.7 | Detroit Lions over the Cardinals: Elo 59%, market 69%, System 67%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| BAL at ATL Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | ATL 59% | 60% | +1.1 | Atlanta Falcons over the Ravens: Elo 56%, market 62%, System 60%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Penix is worth 28 Elo; Huntley is costing 16 Elo. |
| BUF at LAR Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | LAR 58% | 59% | +0.9 | Los Angeles Rams over the Bills: Elo 53%, market 62%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.