Week 7 recap

Week leader: Kalm with +19.6. Season leader: baba with +214.2.

Best forecaster this week: The blend, +32.8 on 14 games, 10 right.

Biggest upset: NYG won at 21% (NYG 27, HOU 21).

Best single pick: Contrarian had MIN at 87% for +23.3.

Our picks

Bold call of the week: LV. Missed (LAR 35, LV 21, Elo -2.0).

Lock of the week: HOU. Missed (NYG 27, HOU 21, Elo -32.8).

Season: locks 3–4, bold calls 0–7. Full record.

Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers, this week and season to date.

#	Forecaster	Games	Right	This week	Season
1	The blend	14	10/14	+32.8	+344.5
2	Sportsbooks	14	10/14	+30.3	+211.2
3	Polymarket	14	10/14	+30.3	+220.6
4	Closing spread	14	10/14	+30.0	+295.8
5	The System	14	10/14	+29.6	+327.1
6	Kalshi	14	10/14	+28.9	+218.8
7	Elo	14	8/14	+6.4	+307.7

Tight agreement: 3 games, favorite won 3. PIT@NO, GB@DET, KC@SEA
Big disagreement: 5 games, favorite won 4; Elo's side won 2 of 5. CIN@BAL, IND@MIN, MIA@NYJ, LAR@LV, DAL@PHI
Clear favorite, mild disagreement: 2 games, favorite won 1. NYG@HOU, DEN@ARI
Everything else: 4 games, favorite won 2. NE@CHI, SF@ATL, TB@CAR, CLE@TEN

Game	Score	Elo	Market	Blend	Spot	Elo pts	Market pts
NE at CHI wind 5 mph, 56°F	CHI NE 24, CHI 30	CHI 54%	CHI 59%	CHI 58%	Everything else	+3.8	+8.2
PIT at NO	PIT PIT 16, NO 10	PIT 63%	PIT 60%	PIT 62%	Tight agreement	+11.3	+9.0
CIN at BAL wind 1 mph, 63°F	CIN CIN 35, BAL 13	BAL 52%	CIN 60%	CIN 57%	Big disagreement	-2.0	+9.0
NYG at HOU	NYG NYG 27, HOU 21	HOU 76%	HOU 80%	HOU 79%	Clear favorite, mild disagreement	-32.8	-39.0
SF at ATL	ATL SF 20, ATL 29	SF 67%	SF 58%	SF 60%	Everything else	-19.9	-8.6
TB at CAR wind 11 mph, 64°F	TB TB 43, CAR 13	CAR 65%	CAR 60%	CAR 61%	Everything else	-17.2	-11.0
CLE at TEN wind 1 mph, 71°F	CLE CLE 27, TEN 24	CLE 62%	CLE 55%	CLE 56%	Everything else	+10.6	+4.8
IND at MIN	MIN IND 10, MIN 16	MIN 87%	MIN 74%	MIN 77%	Big disagreement	+23.3	+18.2
MIA at NYJ wind 3 mph, 65°F	MIA MIA 28, NYJ 25	MIA 50%	NYJ 65%	NYJ 61%	Big disagreement	+0.0	-17.2
DEN at ARI	DEN DEN 30, ARI 16	DEN 73%	DEN 67%	DEN 69%	Clear favorite, mild disagreement	+17.7	+14.1
LAR at LV	LAR LAR 35, LV 21	LV 52%	LAR 61%	LAR 58%	Big disagreement	-2.0	+9.8
GB at DET	DET GB 17, DET 20	DET 61%	DET 65%	DET 66%	Tight agreement	+9.8	+12.8
KC at SEA wind 4 mph, 54°F	SEA KC 3, SEA 20	SEA 60%	SEA 58%	SEA 61%	Tight agreement	+9.0	+7.4
DAL at PHI wind 5 mph, 59°F	DAL DAL 38, PHI 21	PHI 55%	DAL 66%	DAL 61%	Big disagreement	-5.2	+13.4

Down

#	Player	Games	Points
1	Presser bot · baba	14	+45.8
2	Cautious (baba)	14	+33.8
3	The blend	14	+32.8
4	Strong (baba)	14	+32.8
5	Maybe (Kalm)	14	+32.0
6	Scout bot · baba	14	+31.6
7	QB1 bot · Kalm	14	+31.6
8	Marketeer bot · baba	14	+31.1
9	Pure market (baba)	14	+30.9
10	Sportsbooks	14	+30.3
11	Polymarket	14	+30.3
12	Closing spread	14	+30.0
13	The System	14	+29.6
14	Kalshi	14	+28.9
15	Bold (baba)	14	+28.9
16	Claudious bot · baba	14	+28.4
17	The bot crowd	14	+27.5
18	Exchange bot · Kalm	14	+27.4
19	Kalm	2	+19.6
20	Fader bot · Kalm	14	+16.2
21	Homer bot · Kalm	14	+15.8
22	The crowd	2	+14.6
23	The sharp crowd	2	+13.8
24	Elo (the model)	14	+6.4
25	Pure Elo (baba)	14	+6.4
26	baba	14	-4.4
27	Mendo	14	-17.1
28	Contrarian bot · Kalm not ranked this week (picked fewer than half the games)	14	+6.5

4 players on the season board. Full leaderboard.

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