Week 2 recap

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Week leader: baba with -15.6. Season leader: baba with -15.6.

Best forecaster this week: The System, +38.8 on 16 games, 11 right.

Biggest upset: NO won at 23% (NO 24, BAL 17).

Best single pick: an anonymous player had SF at 100% for +25.0.

Our picks

Bold call of the week: MIA. Missed (MIA 13, SF 35, Elo +14.1).

Lock of the week: BAL. Missed (NO 24, BAL 17, Elo -26.8).

Season: locks 0–1, bold calls 0–1. Full record.

Model scoreboard

Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers, this week and season to date.

#	Forecaster	Games	Right	This week	Season
1	The System	16	11/16	+38.8	+78.1
2	The blend	16	11/16	+36.9	+76.2
3	Elo	16	9/16	+33.0	+47.7
4	Closing spread	16	11/16	+25.3	+75.4
5	Sportsbooks	15	10/15	+16.2	-6.4
6	Polymarket	15	10/15	+7.2	-15.4
7	Kalshi	15	10/15	+6.1	-16.5

How the spots played

Tight agreement: 5 games, favorite won 5. DET@BUF, PIT@NE, SEA@ARI, IND@KC, NYG@LAR
Big disagreement: 7 games, favorite won 4; Elo's side won 3 of 7. CAR@ATL, MIN@CHI, GB@NYJ, CLE@TB, LV@LAC, WSH@DAL, MIA@SF
Clear favorite, mild disagreement: 2 games, favorite won 1. NO@BAL, PHI@TEN
Everything else: 2 games, favorite won 1. CIN@HOU, JAX@DEN

Every game

Game	Score	Elo	Market	Blend	Spot	Elo pts	Market pts
DET at BUF	BUF DET 31, BUF 41	BUF 64%	BUF 66%	BUF 67%	Tight agreement	+12.0	+13.4
CAR at ATL	CAR CAR 34, ATL 3	ATL 63%	CAR 56%	CAR 51%	Big disagreement	-14.7	+5.6
CIN at HOU	CIN CIN 20, HOU 6	HOU 62%	HOU 58%	HOU 59%	Everything else	-13.4	-8.6
NO at BAL wind 11 mph, 80°F (heat hurts favorites)	NO NO 24, BAL 17	BAL 72%	BAL 78%	BAL 77%	Clear favorite, mild disagreement	-26.8	-35.8
MIN at CHI wind 13 mph, 66°F	MIN MIN 9, CHI 3	CHI 51%	CHI 66%	CHI 62%	Big disagreement	-1.0	-18.6
PHI at TEN wind 3 mph, 96°F (heat hurts favorites)	PHI PHI 24, TEN 20	PHI 67%	PHI 75%	PHI 73%	Clear favorite, mild disagreement	+14.1	+18.8
PIT at NE wind 6 mph, 60°F	NE PIT 3, NE 20	NE 66%	NE 67%	NE 69%	Tight agreement	+13.4	+14.1
GB at NYJ wind 10 mph, 67°F	GB GB 20, NYJ 17	NYJ 52%	GB 61%	GB 58%	Big disagreement	-2.0	+9.8
CLE at TB wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites)	CLE CLE 23, TB 19	TB 58%	TB 78%	TB 73%	Big disagreement	-8.6	-35.8
LV at LAC	LV LV 26, LAC 14	LAC 58%	LAC 73%	LAC 69%	Big disagreement	-8.6	-28.3
JAX at DEN wind 6 mph, 76°F (heat hurts favorites)	DEN JAX 13, DEN 20	DEN 53%	DEN 57%	DEN 56%	Everything else	+2.9	+6.5
WSH at DAL	DAL WSH 20, DAL 37	DAL 55%	DAL 65%	DAL 63%	Big disagreement	+4.8	+12.8
SEA at ARI	SEA SEA 31, ARI 7	SEA 68%	SEA 65%	SEA 68%	Tight agreement	+14.8	+12.8
MIA at SF wind 7 mph, 66°F	SF MIA 13, SF 35	SF 67%	SF 88%	SF 83%	Big disagreement	+14.1	+23.6
IND at KC wind 8 mph, 71°F	KC IND 30, KC 33	KC 70%	KC 71%	KC 73%	Tight agreement	+16.0	+16.6
NYG at LAR	LAR NYG 6, LAR 28	LAR 70%	LAR 72%	LAR 74%	Tight agreement	+16.0	+17.2

Elo movers

CAR +46 → 1476
CIN +35 → 1540
NO +32 → 1504
LV +31 → 1450
DAL +26 → 1475

Down

ATL -46 → 1419
HOU -35 → 1521
BAL -32 → 1527
LAC -31 → 1451
WSH -26 → 1441

Players this week

#	Player	Games	Points
1	Bold (baba)	16	+48.2
2	Cautious (baba)	16	+39.7
3	The System	16	+38.8
4	Contrarian bot · Kalm	15	+38.5
5	The blend	16	+36.9
6	Presser bot · baba	15	+35.4
7	Elo (the model)	16	+33.0
8	Pure Elo (baba)	16	+33.0
9	Claudious bot · baba	15	+30.9
10	Strong (baba)	16	+29.7
11	The bot crowd	15	+27.5
12	Fader bot · Kalm	15	+26.5
13	Closing spread	16	+25.3
14	QB1 bot · Kalm	15	+25.0
15	Pure market (baba)	16	+24.1
16	Scout bot · baba	15	+20.3
17	Marketeer bot · baba	15	+17.3
18	Sportsbooks	15	+16.2
19	Exchange bot · Kalm	15	+13.2
20	Homer bot · Kalm	15	+7.9
21	Polymarket	15	+7.2
22	Kalshi	15	+6.1
23	baba	15	-15.6
25	The crowd	—	+0.0
26	The sharp crowd	—	+0.0
1 more player not shown (they haven't opted into the public leaderboard). Ranks include them.

2 players on the season board. Full leaderboard.

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