Week 1 recap
Best forecaster this week: Closing spread, +64.8 on 16 games, 12 right.
Biggest upset: ARI won at 24% (ARI 26, LAC 14).
Model scoreboard
Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers, this week and season to date.
| # | Forecaster | Games | Right | This week | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Closing spread | 16 | 12/16 | +64.8 | +295.8 |
| 2 | The blend | 16 | 12/16 | +63.3 | +344.5 |
| 3 | The System | 16 | 12/16 | +63.3 | +327.1 |
| 4 | Elo | 16 | 11/16 | +33.3 | +307.7 |
How the spots played
- Tight agreement: 6 games, favorite won 5. NE@SEA, NO@DET, ATL@PIT, TB@CIN, ARI@LAC, WSH@PHI
- Big disagreement: 3 games, favorite won 3; Elo's side won 1 of 3. BUF@HOU, MIA@LV, GB@MIN
- Coin flips: 1 game, favorite won 0. NYJ@TEN
- Clear favorite, mild disagreement: 1 game, favorite won 1. CLE@JAX
- Everything else: 5 games, favorite won 3. SF@LAR, BAL@IND, CHI@CAR, DAL@NYG, DEN@KC
Every game
| Game | Score | Elo | Market | Blend | Spot | Elo pts | Market pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA | SEA NE 10, SEA 13 | SEA 59% | SEA 59% | SEA 61% | Tight agreement | +8.2 | +8.2 |
| SF at LAR | SF SF 27, LAR 7 | LAR 54% | LAR 60% | LAR 59% | Everything else | -4.2 | -11.0 |
| NO at DET | DET NO 30, DET 31 | DET 67% | DET 70% | DET 71% | Tight agreement | +14.1 | +16.0 |
| NYJ at TEN | NYJ NYJ 23, TEN 10 | TEN 53% | TEN 54% | TEN 54% | Coin flips | -3.1 | -4.2 |
| BAL at IND | BAL BAL 41, IND 23 | BAL 50% | BAL 59% | BAL 57% | Everything else | +0.0 | +8.2 |
| ATL at PIT | PIT ATL 13, PIT 20 | PIT 65% | PIT 69% | PIT 70% | Tight agreement | +12.8 | +15.4 |
| CHI at CAR | CHI CHI 59, CAR 37 | CHI 52% | CHI 59% | CHI 57% | Everything else | +2.0 | +8.2 |
| BUF at HOU | BUF BUF 36, HOU 31 | HOU 59% | BUF 54% | BUF 51% | Big disagreement | -9.8 | +3.8 |
| CLE at JAX | JAX CLE 10, JAX 34 | JAX 67% | JAX 74% | JAX 72% | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | +14.1 | +18.2 |
| TB at CIN | CIN TB 27, CIN 33 | CIN 61% | CIN 60% | CIN 62% | Tight agreement | +9.8 | +9.0 |
| MIA at LV | LV MIA 13, LV 27 | MIA 58% | LV 59% | LV 55% | Big disagreement | -8.6 | +8.2 |
| GB at MIN | MIN GB 22, MIN 39 | MIN 66% | MIN 54% | MIN 57% | Big disagreement | +13.4 | +3.8 |
| ARI at LAC | ARI ARI 26, LAC 14 | LAC 75% | LAC 74% | LAC 76% | Tight agreement | -31.2 | -29.8 |
| WSH at PHI | PHI WSH 22, PHI 24 | PHI 65% | PHI 67% | PHI 69% | Tight agreement | +12.8 | +14.1 |
| DAL at NYG | NYG DAL 20, NYG 28 | NYG 51% | DAL 59% | DAL 56% | Everything else | +1.0 | -9.8 |
| DEN at KC | KC DEN 10, KC 31 | KC 52% | KC 57% | KC 56% | Everything else | +2.0 | +6.5 |
Elo movers
Players this week
| # | Player | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strong (baba) | 16 | +79.0 |
| 2 | Closing spread | 16 | +64.8 |
| 3 | Pure market (baba) | 16 | +64.8 |
| 4 | The blend | 16 | +63.3 |
| 5 | The System | 16 | +63.3 |
| 6 | Bold (baba) | 16 | +62.2 |
| 7 | Cautious (baba) | 16 | +61.5 |
| 8 | Maybe (Kalm) | 16 | +57.8 |
| 9 | Elo (the model) | 16 | +33.3 |
| 10 | Pure Elo (baba) | 16 | +33.3 |
| 11 | Sportsbooks | — | +0.0 |
| 12 | Kalshi | — | +0.0 |
| 13 | Polymarket | — | +0.0 |
| 14 | The crowd | — | +0.0 |
| 15 | The sharp crowd | — | +0.0 |
| 16 | The bot crowd | — | +0.0 |
4 players on the season board. Full leaderboard.
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