Week 3 recap
Week leader: baba with +74.6. Season leader: baba with +54.8.
Best forecaster this week: Elo, +45.0 on 16 games, 10 right.
Biggest upset: WSH won at 24% (SEA 31, WSH 33).
Biggest crowd miss: PHI at CHI, the crowd (4 players) had CHI at 34%.
Best single pick: baba had WSH at 100% for +25.0.
Our picks
Bold call of the week: MIA. Missed (KC 24, MIA 10, Elo +2.0).
Lock of the week: SF. Hit (ARI 30, SF 36, Elo +20.2).
Season: locks 1–1, bold calls 0–2. Full record.
Model scoreboard
Every forecaster scored as a player on its closing numbers, this week and season to date.
| # | Forecaster | Games | Right | This week | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elo | 16 | 10/16 | +45.0 | +113.3 |
| 2 | Closing spread | 16 | 9/16 | +9.6 | +92.2 |
| 3 | The blend | 16 | 9/16 | +9.4 | +103.2 |
| 4 | The System | 16 | 9/16 | +6.0 | +102.9 |
| 5 | Polymarket | 16 | 9/16 | +2.3 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Kalshi | 16 | 9/16 | -0.7 | -3.2 |
| 7 | Sportsbooks | 16 | 8/16 | -12.0 | -4.4 |
How the spots played
- Tight agreement: 5 games, favorite won 3. ATL@GB, TEN@NYG, LAC@BUF, ARI@SF, PHI@CHI
- Big disagreement: 5 games, favorite won 2; Elo's side won 4 of 5. KC@MIA, CIN@PIT, CAR@CLE, MIN@TB, LV@NO
- Coin flips: 1 game, favorite won 0. HOU@IND
- Clear favorite, mild disagreement: 2 games, favorite won 1. NYJ@DET, SEA@WSH
- Everything else: 3 games, favorite won 3. NE@JAX, BAL@DAL, LAR@DEN
Every game
| Game | Score | Elo | Market | Blend | Spot | Elo pts | Market pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at GB wind 4 mph, 62°F | ATL ATL 35, GB 14 | GB 66% | GB 69% | GB 70% | Tight agreement | -18.6 | -22.6 |
| NYJ at DET | DET NYJ 24, DET 31 | DET 69% | DET 73% | DET 72% | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | +15.4 | +17.7 |
| HOU at IND | IND HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU 52% | HOU 53% | HOU 53% | Coin flips | -2.0 | -3.1 |
| KC at MIA wind 4 mph, 83°F (heat hurts favorites) | KC KC 24, MIA 10 | KC 52% | KC 84% | KC 76% | Big disagreement | +2.0 | +22.4 |
| TEN at NYG wind 16 mph (matters), 61°F | NYG TEN 7, NYG 12 | NYG 59% | NYG 56% | NYG 58% | Tight agreement | +8.2 | +5.6 |
| CIN at PIT wind 13 mph, 70°F | PIT CIN 27, PIT 30 | CIN 50% | CIN 61% | CIN 58% | Big disagreement | +0.0 | -12.2 |
| SEA at WSH wind 11 mph, 60°F | WSH SEA 31, WSH 33 | SEA 71% | SEA 77% | SEA 76% | Clear favorite, mild disagreement | -25.4 | -34.3 |
| NE at JAX wind 8 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites) | JAX NE 6, JAX 35 | JAX 53% | JAX 59% | JAX 58% | Everything else | +2.9 | +8.2 |
| LAC at BUF wind 14 mph, 69°F | BUF LAC 16, BUF 24 | BUF 77% | BUF 75% | BUF 78% | Tight agreement | +19.7 | +18.8 |
| CAR at CLE wind 13 mph, 68°F | CLE CAR 18, CLE 21 | CLE 56% | CAR 54% | CAR 52% | Big disagreement | +5.6 | -4.2 |
| ARI at SF wind 5 mph, 68°F | SF ARI 30, SF 36 | SF 78% | SF 77% | SF 79% | Tight agreement | +20.2 | +19.7 |
| MIN at TB wind 7 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites) | MIN MIN 23, TB 16 | MIN 74% | MIN 51% | MIN 57% | Big disagreement | +18.2 | +1.0 |
| LV at NO | LV LV 35, NO 27 | NO 52% | NO 64% | NO 61% | Big disagreement | -2.0 | -16.0 |
| BAL at DAL wind 7 mph, 72°F | BAL BAL 34, DAL 31 | BAL 57% | BAL 62% | BAL 61% | Everything else | +6.5 | +10.6 |
| LAR at DEN wind 10 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites) | DEN LAR 26, DEN 30 | DEN 57% | LAR 51% | DEN 51% | Everything else | +6.5 | -1.0 |
| PHI at CHI wind 5 mph, 63°F | CHI PHI 7, CHI 27 | PHI 61% | PHI 64% | PHI 65% | Tight agreement | -12.2 | -16.0 |
Elo movers
Players this week
| # | Player | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | baba | 15 | +74.6 |
| 2 | The sharp crowd | 15 | +60.7 |
| 3 | The crowd | 15 | +59.1 |
| 4 | Contrarian bot · Kalm | 15 | +53.9 |
| 5 | Homer bot · Kalm | 15 | +52.1 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 16 | +45.0 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 16 | +45.0 |
| 8 | The bot crowd | 15 | +34.9 |
| 9 | Fader bot · Kalm | 15 | +34.3 |
| 11 | Mendo | 15 | +30.7 |
| 12 | Claudious bot · baba | 15 | +29.6 |
| 13 | QB1 bot · Kalm | 15 | +23.6 |
| 14 | Presser bot · baba | 15 | +23.3 |
| 15 | Scout bot · baba | 15 | +22.9 |
| 16 | Exchange bot · Kalm | 15 | +21.0 |
| 17 | Marketeer bot · baba | 15 | +16.8 |
| 18 | Maybe (Kalm) | 16 | +13.3 |
| 19 | Closing spread | 16 | +9.6 |
| 20 | The blend | 16 | +9.4 |
| 21 | The System | 16 | +6.0 |
| 22 | Bold (baba) | 16 | +6.0 |
| 23 | Cautious (baba) | 16 | +5.2 |
| 24 | Polymarket | 16 | +2.3 |
| 25 | Kalshi | 16 | -0.7 |
| 26 | Pure market (baba) | 16 | -5.4 |
| 27 | Sportsbooks | 16 | -12.0 |
| 28 | Kalm | 16 | -17.9 |
| 29 | Strong (baba) | 16 | -27.6 |
| 1 more player not shown (they haven't opted into the public leaderboard). Ranks include them. | |||
4 players on the season board. Full leaderboard.
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