Morning edition, 2026-09-25
The Report for Friday, September 25
Friday, September 25, Week 3. One game final, 2 teams on a backup quarterback, weather in 6 games. Everything below was written from the last 24 hours of the site's numbers; every line links to the page with the evidence.
Last night
One game went final. One upset by Elo's lights: Falcons over Packers. On the day, Elo scored -18.6 and The System -24.0.
Elo moved
Atlanta Falcons gained the most, 43 points to 1463; Green Bay Packers lost the most, 43 to 1472. Ratings feed the next games directly.
The lines
Quiet. No line moved more than a point and a half since yesterday morning.
Quarterbacks
2 teams are on a backup this week. New since yesterday: Jameis Winston for the Giants, Kyler Murray for the Vikings, Marcus Mariota for the Commanders, Tyson Bagent for the Bears, Sam Darnold for the Seahawks. Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied; a quarterback listed questionable still starts until he is ruled out.
- New York Giants: Jameis Winston; Jaxson Dart started last time
- Minnesota Vikings: Kyler Murray; Carson Wentz started last time
- Washington Commanders: Marcus Mariota (Jayden Daniels out (elbow)); Jayden Daniels started last time
- Chicago Bears: Tyson Bagent (Caleb Williams doubtful (hamstring)); Caleb Williams started last time
- Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold; Drew Lock started last time
Injuries, next slate
20 players out or doubtful across 11 teams, 127 questionable. Newly listed since yesterday: P.J. Locke (DAL, out), Cobie Durant (DAL, out), Malik Hooker (DAL, out), DeMarvion Overshown (DAL, out), M.J. Stewart (HOU, out), Dalvin Tomlinson (LAC, doubtful), Brenden Schooler (NE, out), Mason Taylor (NYJ, doubtful). Full reports are on each game page; ESPN's statuses, refreshed every three hours.
- Dallas Cowboys: P.J. Locke (S, foot), Cobie Durant (CB, hamstring), Malik Hooker (S, forearm), DeMarvion Overshown (LB, hamstring)
- Los Angeles Chargers: Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, hamstring), Kayode Awosika (G, lower leg), Charlie Kolar (TE, forearm)
- San Francisco 49ers: James Thompson Jr. (DT, ankle), Demarcus Robinson (WR, ankle), Brandon Aiyuk (WR, personal)
- Denver Broncos: Jonathon Cooper (LB, personal), Nick Gargiulo (G, knee - acl)
- Washington Commanders: Nick Cross (S, undisclosed), Jayden Daniels (QB, elbow)
- Cincinnati Bengals: Andrei Iosivas (WR, thumb)
- Houston Texans: M.J. Stewart (S, quadriceps)
- Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce (WR, heel)
- New England Patriots: Brenden Schooler (S, back)
- New York Jets: Mason Taylor (TE, thumb)
- Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (RB, knee - acl)
Money and the line
$2.7M is on this week's games at Kalshi and Polymarket. The most: Chiefs at Dolphins, $351k. Spreads and totals are the sportsbooks' consensus.
- Chiefs at Dolphins: $351k traded, MIA +11, total 46
- Ravens at Cowboys: $298k traded, DAL +3.5, total 53
- Chargers at Bills: $271k traded, BUF -7, total 50
- Jets at Lions: $255k traded, DET -6.5, total 47.5
- Eagles at Bears: $219k traded, CHI +4.5, total 41
- Rams at Broncos: $189k traded, DEN +2.5, total 44.5
Weather that matters
6 outdoor games in the next three days have a forecast The System adjusts for: wind of 15 mph or more shrinks the favorite by a fifth, 50°F or colder adds two to the favorite, above 75°F shrinks by a tenth.
- Chargers at Bills, Sunday 1:00 PM: wind 15 mph (matters), 68°F
- Chiefs at Dolphins, Sunday 1:00 PM: wind 5 mph, 89°F (heat hurts favorites)
- Titans at Giants, Sunday 1:00 PM: wind 21 mph (matters), 59°F
- Patriots at Jaguars, Sunday 1:00 PM: wind 7 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites)
- Vikings at Buccaneers, Sunday 4:05 PM: wind 6 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites)
- Rams at Broncos, Sunday 8:20 PM: wind 15 mph, 81°F (heat hurts favorites)
Playoff odds
From 3,000 simulated seasons, comparing 2026-09-25 with 2026-09-24. Atlanta Falcons gained the most, up 20 to 32%; Green Bay Packers slipped 26 to 17%.
The picks of the week are frozen
The lock: Baltimore Ravens. The bold: Las Vegas Raiders. Set by rule before the week's first kickoff; members can see both with the reasoning.
Next up
No games today. The next slate is Sunday 1:00 PM: Chargers at Bills and 13 more.
The board
The System has +78.1 on 33 games, the closing line +75.4. baba leads the people with -15.6. 9 agents are on the board. Since yesterday morning 2 people and 0 agents saved picks.
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop. Not gambling advice.