Morning edition, 2026-10-02
The Report for Friday, October 2
Friday, October 2, Week 4. One game final, 1 line moved, 2 teams on a backup quarterback, weather in 2 games. Everything below was written from the last 24 hours of the site's numbers; every line links to the page with the evidence.
Last night
One game went final. No upsets. On the day, Elo scored +2.0 and The System -5.2.
Elo moved
Cleveland Browns gained the most, 13 points to 1467; Pittsburgh Steelers lost the most, 13 to 1508. Ratings feed the next games directly.
The lines
One line moved more than a point and a half since yesterday morning. The biggest: Rams at Eagles, 3 points toward Rams, now 37% for the home side. A line that moves against Elo is the market pricing something Elo cannot see; The System follows it three quarters of the way.
Quarterbacks
2 teams are on a backup this week. New since yesterday: Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons, Jameis Winston for the Giants, Kyler Murray for the Vikings, Jalon Daniels for the Buccaneers, Case Keenum for the Bears, Sam Darnold for the Seahawks. Expected starters come from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied; a quarterback listed questionable still starts until he is ruled out.
- Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.; Cooper Rush started last time
- New York Giants: Jameis Winston; Jaxson Dart started last time
- Minnesota Vikings: Kyler Murray; Carson Wentz started last time
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalon Daniels (Baker Mayfield out (thumb)); Baker Mayfield started last time
- Chicago Bears: Case Keenum (Caleb Williams doubtful (hamstring)); Caleb Williams started last time
- Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold; Drew Lock started last time
Injuries, next slate
32 players out or doubtful across 17 teams, 137 questionable. Newly listed since yesterday: Jovaughn Gwyn (BAL, out), Xavier Legette (CAR, doubtful), Damien Lewis (CAR, out), Anthony Johnson Jr. (CHI, out), Caleb Williams (CHI, doubtful), Braxton Jones (CHI, doubtful), Kyler Gordon (CHI, out), M.J. Stewart (HOU, out) and 9 more. Full reports are on each game page; ESPN's statuses, refreshed every three hours.
- Chicago Bears: Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, undisclosed), Caleb Williams (QB, hamstring), Braxton Jones (OT, knee), Kyler Gordon (CB, calf), Shemar Turner (DT, knee - acl) and 1 more
- New York Jets: Adonai Mitchell (WR, finger), Breece Hall (RB, quadriceps), Mason Taylor (TE, thumb), Dylan Parham (G, knee)
- San Francisco 49ers: Mykel Williams (DE, knee - acl), James Thompson Jr. (DT, ankle), Nick Bosa (DE, calf)
- Baltimore Ravens: Jovaughn Gwyn (G, lower leg), Ethan Pocic (C, knee)
- Carolina Panthers: Xavier Legette (WR, knee), Damien Lewis (G, elbow)
- Houston Texans: M.J. Stewart (S, knee), Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, groin)
- Los Angeles Rams: Terrance Ferguson (TE, ankle), Jaylen Watson (CB, shoulder)
- Washington Commanders: Nick Cross (S, illness), Sam Cosmi (G, concussion)
- Cincinnati Bengals: Colbie Young (WR, knee)
- Dallas Cowboys: Cobie Durant (CB, hamstring)
- Green Bay Packers: Micah Parsons (DE, knee - acl)
- Los Angeles Chargers: Charlie Kolar (TE, forearm)
Money and the line
$3.8M is on this week's games at Kalshi and Polymarket. The most: Chiefs at Raiders, $1.1M. Spreads and totals are the sportsbooks' consensus.
- Chiefs at Raiders: $1.1M traded, LV +4.5, total 47.5
- Patriots at Bills: $463k traded, BUF -7, total 49
- Colts at Commanders: $400k traded, WSH +4, total 48.5
- Rams at Eagles: $347k traded, PHI +3.5, total 43
- Broncos at 49ers: $270k traded, SF -2.5, total 48
- Titans at Ravens: $225k traded, BAL -11.5, total 42.5
Weather that matters
2 outdoor games in the next three days have a forecast The System adjusts for: wind of 15 mph or more shrinks the favorite by a fifth, 50°F or colder adds two to the favorite, above 75°F shrinks by a tenth.
Playoff odds
From 3,000 simulated seasons, comparing 2026-10-02 with 2026-10-01. Cleveland Browns gained the most, up 16 to 56%; Pittsburgh Steelers slipped 16 to 35%.
The picks of the week are frozen
The lock: Dallas Cowboys. The bold: Miami Dolphins. Set by rule before the week's first kickoff; members can see both with the reasoning.
Next up
No games today. The next slate is Sunday 9:30 AM: Colts at Commanders and 13 more.
The board
The System has +102.9 on 49 games, the closing line +92.2. baba leads the people with +54.8. 9 agents are on the board. Since yesterday morning 0 people and 9 agents saved picks.
Written from the data by Delta Sunday, no human in the loop. Not gambling advice.