Game plan · Week 3
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 44.1 points this week, give or take 67 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 45.1.
A typical week lands between -23 and 111. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -42.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 5 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at GB Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | GB 73% | 70% | +3.9 | Green Bay Packers over the Falcons: Elo 66%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Penix is worth 28 Elo. |
| TEN at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYG 58% | 57% | +0.4 | New York Giants over the Titans: Elo 59%, market 56%, System 57%. Tight agreement: go above both. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Ward is worth 19 Elo; wind 16 mph (matters), 61°F. |
| LAC at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 82% | 78% | +7.4 | Buffalo Bills over the Chargers: Elo 77%, market 75%, System 78%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; BUF off a bye. |
| ARI at SF Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | SF 86% | 81% | +9.6 | San Francisco 49ers over the Cardinals: Elo 78%, market 77%, System 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| PHI at CHI Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | PHI 67% | 65% | +2.3 | Philadelphia Eagles over the Bears: Elo 61%, market 64%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. Keenum is costing 100 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo. |
Fade Elo 5 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | KC 77% | 73% | +5.3 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Dolphins: Elo 52%, market 84%, System 73%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; wind 4 mph, 83°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| CIN at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 60% | 58% | +0.7 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Steelers: Elo 50%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
| CAR at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 52% | 52% | +0.0 | Carolina Panthers over the Browns: Elo 44%, market 54%, System 52%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo. |
| MIN at TB Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | MIN 57% | 56% | +0.4 | Minnesota Vikings over the Buccaneers: Elo 74%, market 51%, System 56%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo; wind 7 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LV at NO Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | NO 63% | 61% | +1.2 | New Orleans Saints over the Raiders: Elo 52%, market 64%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 53% | 53% | +0.1 | Houston Texans over the Colts: Elo 52%, market 53%, System 53%. Coin flip: stay near 50. |
Play straight 5 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | DET 76% | 72% | +4.8 | Detroit Lions over the Jets: Elo 69%, market 73%, System 72%. Clear favorite, take the average. Smith is worth 22 Elo; DET off a bye. |
| SEA at WSH Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | SEA 80% | 76% | +6.5 | Seattle Seahawks over the Commanders: Elo 71%, market 77%, System 76%. Clear favorite, take the average. Lock is costing 30 Elo. |
| NE at JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | JAX 58% | 57% | +0.4 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Patriots: Elo 53%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 8 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| BAL at DAL Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | BAL 62% | 61% | +1.1 | Baltimore Ravens over the Cowboys: Elo 57%, market 62%, System 61%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| LAR at DEN Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | DEN 51% | 51% | +0.0 | Denver Broncos over the Rams: Elo 57%, market 49%, System 51%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 10 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.