Game plan · Week 9
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 55.2 points this week, give or take 74 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 56.5.
A typical week lands between -19 and 129. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -39.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 6 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at ATL Sun 9:30 AM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Falcons: Elo 64%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Penix is worth 28 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
| NYJ at KC Sun 1:00 PM ET | KC 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Jets: Elo 79%, market 80%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo. |
| GB at NE Sun 4:25 PM ET | NE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | New England Patriots over the Packers: Elo 63%, market 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. GB off a bye; wind 2 mph, 48°F (cold helps favorites). |
| LV at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | San Francisco 49ers over the Raiders: Elo 77%, market 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; SF off a bye. |
| ARI at SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | SEA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 85%, market 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Minshew is costing 87 Elo; wind 15 mph (matters), 60°F. |
| TB at CHI Sun 8:20 PM ET | CHI 75% | 71% | +4.5 | Chicago Bears over the Buccaneers: Elo 72%, market 69%, System 71%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
Fade Elo 4 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX at BAL Thu 8:15 PM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Ravens: Elo 60%, market 79%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Huntley is costing 16 Elo. |
| DET at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET | DET 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Detroit Lions over the Dolphins: Elo 59%, market 74%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; wind 11 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| DAL at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET | DAL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Dallas Cowboys over the Colts: Elo 48%, market 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| BUF at MIN Mon 8:15 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Buffalo Bills over the Vikings: Elo 37%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo. |
Play straight 5 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at NO Sun 1:00 PM ET | NO 00% | 00% | +0.0 | New Orleans Saints over the Browns: Elo 53%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; NO off a bye. |
| NYG at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | NYG 00% | 00% | +0.0 | New York Giants over the Eagles: Elo 53%, market 62%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. McKee is costing 29 Elo; McCarthy is costing 88 Elo; NYG off a bye. |
| LAR at WSH Sun 1:00 PM ET | LAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Los Angeles Rams over the Commanders: Elo 60%, market 69%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| DEN at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET | DEN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Denver Broncos over the Panthers: Elo 63%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. CAR off a bye. |
| HOU at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET | HOU 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Houston Texans over the Chargers: Elo 59%, market 65%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; HOU off a bye. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.