Game plan · Week 3
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 44.6 points this week, give or take 52 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 45.1.
A typical week lands between -8 and 97. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -23.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 5 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at GB Thu 8:15 PM ET · locked | GB 68% | 70% | +3.9 | Green Bay Packers over the Falcons: Elo 66%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Penix is worth 28 Elo. |
| TEN at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | NYG 56% | 57% | +0.4 | New York Giants over the Titans: Elo 59%, market 56%, System 57%. Tight agreement: go above both. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Ward is worth 19 Elo; wind 16 mph (matters), 61°F. |
| LAC at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 75% | 78% | +7.5 | Buffalo Bills over the Chargers: Elo 77%, market 75%, System 78%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; BUF off a bye. |
| ARI at SF Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked · lock of the week | SF 78% | 81% | +9.7 | San Francisco 49ers over the Cardinals: Elo 78%, market 77%, System 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| PHI at CHI Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | PHI 64% | 65% | +2.3 | Philadelphia Eagles over the Bears: Elo 61%, market 64%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. Keenum is costing 100 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo. |
Fade Elo 5 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | KC 71% | 73% | +5.4 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Dolphins: Elo 52%, market 84%, System 73%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; wind 4 mph, 83°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| CIN at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 57% | 58% | +0.7 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Steelers: Elo 50%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
| CAR at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CAR 51% | 52% | +0.0 | Carolina Panthers over the Browns: Elo 44%, market 54%, System 52%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo. |
| MIN at TB Sun 4:05 PM ET · locked | MIN 56% | 56% | +0.4 | Minnesota Vikings over the Buccaneers: Elo 74%, market 51%, System 56%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo; wind 7 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| LV at NO Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | NO 60% | 61% | +1.2 | New Orleans Saints over the Raiders: Elo 52%, market 64%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | HOU 53% | 53% | +0.1 | Houston Texans over the Colts: Elo 52%, market 53%, System 53%. Coin flip: stay near 50. |
Play straight 5 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | DET 70% | 72% | +4.9 | Detroit Lions over the Jets: Elo 69%, market 73%, System 72%. Clear favorite, take the average. Smith is worth 22 Elo; DET off a bye. |
| SEA at WSH Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | SEA 73% | 76% | +6.6 | Seattle Seahawks over the Commanders: Elo 71%, market 77%, System 76%. Clear favorite, take the average. Lock is costing 30 Elo. |
| NE at JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | JAX 56% | 57% | +0.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Patriots: Elo 53%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 8 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| BAL at DAL Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | BAL 59% | 61% | +1.1 | Baltimore Ravens over the Cowboys: Elo 57%, market 62%, System 61%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| LAR at DEN Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | DEN 51% | 51% | +0.0 | Denver Broncos over the Rams: Elo 57%, market 49%, System 51%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. wind 10 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.