Game plan · Week 9
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 55.9 points this week, give or take 58 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 56.5.
A typical week lands between -2 and 114. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -18.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 6 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at ATL Sun 9:30 AM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Falcons: Elo 64%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Penix is worth 28 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo. |
| NYJ at KC Sun 1:00 PM ET | KC 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Jets: Elo 79%, market 80%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo. |
| GB at NE Sun 4:25 PM ET | NE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | New England Patriots over the Packers: Elo 63%, market 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. GB off a bye; wind 2 mph, 48°F (cold helps favorites). |
| LV at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | San Francisco 49ers over the Raiders: Elo 77%, market 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; SF off a bye. |
| ARI at SEA Sun 4:25 PM ET | SEA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 85%, market 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Minshew is costing 87 Elo; wind 15 mph (matters), 60°F. |
| TB at CHI Sun 8:20 PM ET | CHI 69% | 71% | +4.5 | Chicago Bears over the Buccaneers: Elo 72%, market 69%, System 71%. Tight agreement: go above both. |
Fade Elo 4 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX at BAL Thu 8:15 PM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Ravens: Elo 60%, market 79%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Huntley is costing 16 Elo. |
| DET at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET | DET 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Detroit Lions over the Dolphins: Elo 59%, market 74%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; wind 11 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). |
| DAL at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET | DAL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Dallas Cowboys over the Colts: Elo 48%, market 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo. |
| BUF at MIN Mon 8:15 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Buffalo Bills over the Vikings: Elo 37%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo. |
Play straight 5 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at NO Sun 1:00 PM ET | NO 00% | 00% | +0.0 | New Orleans Saints over the Browns: Elo 53%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; NO off a bye. |
| NYG at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | NYG 00% | 00% | +0.0 | New York Giants over the Eagles: Elo 53%, market 62%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. McKee is costing 29 Elo; McCarthy is costing 88 Elo; NYG off a bye. |
| LAR at WSH Sun 1:00 PM ET | LAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Los Angeles Rams over the Commanders: Elo 60%, market 69%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| DEN at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET | DEN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Denver Broncos over the Panthers: Elo 63%, market 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. CAR off a bye. |
| HOU at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET | HOU 00% | 00% | +0.0 | Houston Texans over the Chargers: Elo 59%, market 65%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; HOU off a bye. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.